Price levels — What do you recommed to learn about risk and money management. Dr. Van Tharp has some good stuff about money management. I believe you won't take a short position (AUDUSD) at this time because latelly you mentioned that you ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

News vs Fundamentals — This doesn't mean that you were wrong. What you were doing was trading order flows and using NEWS to confirm. News and fundamentals are not the same thing. News is something that will take effect over the short term ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Ok, but where do the fundamentals come into the picture here? And also this is short term trading, I trade a much longer time frame. Let me show you how I played the Dubai Crisis. First of all I didn't know there would be a debt crisis in Dubai, ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Runng the stops and shakeouts — Yes, this known as running the stops, it clears the order books and let's the pros get in at a better price. This why price doesn't stop immediately on a major support or resistance level. There is also another ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Well said! — in fact those experts are only necessary to give justification for the people who do not think Well said, Silverheat! I believe that most people just want to be told what and how to trade so they don't have to take ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Fundamentals — Frankly, I believed in both a and b. Fundies are useless and experts are more than what they seem until your thread came along. This is the same thing as listening to someone else's technical analysis, you can't trade or profit ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Welcome — Hi Vicky, Welcome to the thread. Most, if not all, threads are devoted to trade shorter TF (1Hr and Lower), it is great to see some real long term trading dedicated thread. I've tried both short term and long term. I can honestly say ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

You could be right — You could be right. I'll try to give you my perspective. I'm looking more at how the commodity currencies are reacting to developments in the USD. Which says that the commodities have NOT been losing ground to the USD. ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Fed Funds Rate — That's almost correct. It's not certain that we'll see a hike in the Fed Funds Rate shortly. IMO, the Fed will be cautious to raise the FFR before employment and inflation has been showing positive improvements for some ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

EU and ECB — EUR yield will probably stay put or lag US yield because EUR economy will pick up later. First of all we need to differentiate yields and interest rates. They are not the same thing. I assume that you are referring to interest ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

CADJPY — I believe that CADJPY is going to reverse either today or the beginning of next week. But then again I thought it would reverse last week, so I could be wrong! The factors for my analysis is that price has run into resistance in ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Freight trains — Different strokes ..... Just be careful to jump out of the way of the freight train should momentum start to pick up to the downside.

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Medium Term (BOSS) trend — From my post back in Jan and posts #9775 and #9339, it looks like the medium term trends are starting to re-assert themselves. The really boring thing about fundamentals is that they change SLOWLY over time, so there ...

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Is everybody in on the commodities? — So is everybody in on the commodities? I was actually a week early, as I mentioned before I tend to jump the gun a bit when I can see these reversals coming. But as you can see in the charts that we have ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

AUD — Yes, as I mentioned before the strength of the fundamentals is that when used properly you can anticipate reversals in advance, but the downside is that they can't tell you exactly when they will happen, so you have to adjust your ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

USDJPY — I have a similar outlook. The JPY crosses along with the USD pairs, with the exception of USDJPY, are in a correction phase over the medium term and I don't see them breaking to the upside until that correction has been completed. As ...

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Agreed — Yes, I agree Nicola. This is a clear signal that the Fed is withdrawing emergency measures. How far behind is the Fed Funds Rate? Q2 or Q3 2010 maybe? It was a bit of an over-reaction, but good for USD longs, so I don't mind.

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Major development — The Fed just hiked the discount rate by 25 basis points. This is the first signal that the Fed is withdrawing emergency stimulus and tightening credit by via reduction of money supply. The all important Fed Funds Rate is ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Euro trend — 1. is there a way to judge whether the EUR problem has been discounted by market ? Yes, the EuroZone debt problem was factored into the market several weeks ago. The way I read the markets is to do a comparison analysis, just ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

The commodities again — Great price action in USDCAD , NZDUSD and AUDUSD. Big big move towards the medium term trend!

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading