Jacko, What's the alternative? Deliberately design a system that doesn't work or one that performs poorly? The selection of a currency pair, the time frame, the indicators, the time of day traded, the position sizing model......are all forms of ...

Is this a Successful System?

aparsai, what did you use for commissions and slippage in your testing?

Is this a Successful System?

I would be more concerned about touching a system with a profit factor of over 2 than one under 2. A high profit factor is one of the first warnings of an overfit system. I have Stridman's book in front of me. Can you tell me where he says it's ...

Is this a Successful System?

Both pairs can be traded on the CME.

Chinese yuan (USD/CNY)

You're too kind. Since I don't trade the moutekisidusbagovinotlatomifozzyvegasbellabunnygirlfirebidphoenix system there isn't much left to talk about besides technical analysis.

GBPUSD

Right, ATR says nothing about market direction. It just gives one an idea of what kind of movement is possible given current market conditions. Because it is smoothed over 14 bars (adjustable) it doesn't change drastically in any one day. It does ...

GBPUSD

That's a legitimate question and far from dumb! The way I apply it is to establish some kind of daily expectation as to how far the market may move. I live on the east coast of the US. If i wake up and the market has moved 1 ATR I know that my ...

GBPUSD

This is from investopedia: A measure of volatility introduced by Welles Wilder in his book: New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. The True Range indicator is the greatest of the following: -current high less the current low. -the absolute value ...

GBPUSD

[QUOTE=FXopportunist] Here is a graph of the daily GBPUSD ATR. You can see that the probability of a 2 ATR is almost nil. The graph is small because of FF size restrictions. The highest peak has 43 occurences at 0.8 ATR. Each bar (x axis) is in ...

GBPUSD

This is funny material. Do you have a whole routine or is this it?

GBPUSD

You grossly oversimplify the subject of optimization. Entire books have been written on the subject of development and testing. Optimization is like fire. You treat it well and respect it, it will warm your house and cook your food. You misuse it ...

backtesting, The past...

Yeah, I got that. DNT optons are traded OTC and as such are generally NOT leaked to joeblow's newswire. If a counterparty leaks information they will no longer be a trusted business partner and they will be on the outside looking in real quick. I ...

Order Flow

moonchild, you do not have to trade like me but I completely disrespect all fundamentals. I agree that markets move because of fundamentals and emotions and all that stuff. I'll trade it when it shows up on the chart. I have no desire to know why ...

GBPUSD

I changed my answer I think 1 lot is 90 cents. It definitely moves in 0.0001 increments.

Anyone speak Peso?

I think 1 pip is $0.90 USD

Anyone speak Peso?

moonchild, it's clear that you are concerned about fundamentals. I certainly respect that but you should also understand that technicians do care about deviations from ATR. Trading is a sequence of probabilities and ATR definitely has significance ...

GBPUSD

OK, close enough. Yesterday's range: 1.8874 - 1.8676 = 198 pips ATR(14) = 125 pips. 198/125 = 1.6 times the daily range.

GBPUSD

No, it didn't move that much either. I don't mean to pick on you, it's just that if you're going to add some factual information then check your facts. If you think the GBP is going to move, I'm happy for you. That is opinion-based and I certainly ...

GBPUSD

You might want to check your math on that one!

GBPUSD

I always wondered why a trading institution would reveal where their stops are located and what options they are holding. When I traded at a firm Reuters would call everyday and snoop around to find out what we were doing. We always just made ...

Order Flow