Submitted May 4, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

NFP is the granddaddy of all economic releases and the layup to this morning announcement has consisted of a month of “forgettable” trading. One of theses day’s a payroll release will manage to break the camels back, however, today is not considered ...

Submitted May 1, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|3 comments

Mayday! Mayday! It’s a tad early to be using this distress signal for the single unit. The only alert is that the currency is about to extend its recent highs. The depth of existing EUR shorts continues to frustrate a still bearish market. The ...

Submitted Apr 30, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|1 comment

EUR bears give it up! Bulls, is it worth it? All this for a few ticks in either direction from the close each day or are you both promising that this week will be different? It is another week full of PMI’s, however, moderation is expected to be the ...

Submitted Apr 28, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

The FED remains prepared to do more as needed to make sure the US recovery continues. The consensus view of the FOMC meet this week represents a highly accommodative policy stance. With Treasury’s, equities and gold ending the week higher and the ...

Submitted Apr 28, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

The BoJ has disappointed the market expectations for aggressive easing. Despite announcing a +JPY10t increase in its JGB purchase program, an offsetting reduction in the target for fixed-rate loans to banks, saw a net increase in the APP in line ...

Submitted Apr 27, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

Investors will continue to view this as a EUR relief rally without teeth unless resistance is firmly broken or the slew of weak PMI’s right themselves. The markets current low level of risk appetite is partially due to the lack of a core market ...

Submitted Apr 27, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

This EUR market is having a difficult time deciding what it wants to do in the short term as it gyrates around familiar prices levels. The initial reaction to the two notch Spanish downgrade by S&P was itself rather muted. The cut certainly was not ...

Submitted Apr 26, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|3 comments

Psychologically, it’s a disappointment to see the EUR open up virtually unchanged. So far this morning the market has done a good job taking out the weaker shorts just below the April 4 high. Despite the daily charts up-ticking, the market and ...

Submitted Apr 25, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

There must be some truth in ‘an apple a day keeps the doctor away.’ Well the EUR bulls would like to believe that. After hours trading yesterday saw Apple earnings release give the risk market some freedom to roam higher. Roam is too strong, ...

Submitted Apr 24, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|25 comments

Today brings forth some modest bounces in all asset classes. It can so, only because of the depth of shellacking they have experienced of late. All just in time and ahead of reports on American consumer confidence and home sales later this morning. ...

Submitted Apr 23, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|3 comments

Now that the political posturing and gesturing and G20 promises have been completed, Capital markets again can trade with that lack of conviction and air of uncertainty. Already this month, one month implied volatility for the EUR market has fallen ...

Submitted Apr 21, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|3 comments

The Fed takes center stage next week. Does the retail sales print this week finally put a nail into Q3’s coffin? Bernanke’s colleague, north of the 49th, at the BoC, is itching to pull the rate trigger. This week, policy signals and tone from ...

Submitted Apr 21, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

This week, China widened the Yuan’s trading band outright to +1% above or below the central parity rate (the PBoC fix before trading). Previously they had been using +0.5%. Against the EUR, GBP and JPY, the float is up to +/-3%. Optically, it is ...

Submitted Apr 20, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

Euro bond auctions dominated this week’s proceedings. German product, with the ultra-low yields, is beginning to struggle to attract strong demand but is unlikely to have a strong effect on the EUR. Why? With the desirable Bunds, investors in this ...

Submitted Apr 20, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

The pattern remains the same in the overnight session, another contained EUR trading range. However, if a currency is unwilling to head south, then there is a threat that it will want to trade at higher prices. This will certainly be testing the ...

Submitted Apr 19, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|1 comment

Spain did everything they could do to make sure this auction went well. The recent tightening in their fixed income market has all been about investor positioning. Eventually the market will have to return to Spanish fundamentals, and they ...

Submitted Apr 18, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|1 comment

With an “official” unemployment rate of 24 percent, and the number of loans falling into default more than doubling in the past year, fears that Spain could be heading towards a sovereign default forced the country’s borrowing costs to rise sharply ...

Submitted Apr 18, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

The EUR bears can be thankful that Sarkozy cannot keep his own thoughts to himself. Stating the obvious, that a strong single currency hurts exporters, and it’s value should be discussed with the ECB, has woken up a market that other wise would have ...

Submitted Apr 17, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

A poll of 24 economists conducted by Reuters predicts that after seven straight years of declines, U.S. home prices are poised to rise next year. A reversal in the U.S. housing market could have a significant impact on the economy as, historically, ...

Submitted Apr 17, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|2 comments

Yesterday, EUR bears were eyeing 1.30 as one of their downside objectives, a day later and trying to remain true to their convictions, that target has now become 1.31, courtesy of a stronger US retail sales print that speared risk-aversion ...