No assumption Cindy, I calculated it. EU is still the least profitable pair in retail by a long chalk. It's not all traders - it's their aggregate position, which is disproportionately affected by those trading with almighty drawdowns.

Why are most retail traders usually on the wrong side of the market?

Now this is a question... — Deep breath. So... retailers do spend most of the time in drawdown - on EU we're talking about 99% of the time (real figures, not billy bullshit). I've got around 18 months of retail data now. Since I last wrote ...

Why are most retail traders usually on the wrong side of the market?

Spot on Kiwi. Oldmaster, it's not a stupid idea at all, though one we've all had a some point or other. Most people seem to think that the retail punter is simply a victim of overleveraging and shitty risk management. While that's undoubtedly true, ...

What is your edge?

Good to hear Petra. 6 more months and you can start caning it!

Make or Break Year for Petra!

About 20% ish according to their estimates Interestingly, FX is becoming more speculative, not less.

algorithmic trading in forex

If you want to protect your capital, stick it under your mattress. The answer should only be about one single question - does it improve profits? Whereas, as XT rightly says, it's often because it makes traders feel more comfortable. Illusion of ...

Moving Stop to B/E (Break Even) Discussion

Jasus - you hit the nail on the proverbial head. You could wipe off billions off the NHS annual bill if people understood the connection between the mind and a multitude of persistent, chronic illnesses. Back pain and RSI rates would fall overnight. ...

Lower back pain and your forex chair...

BRB, in short, I agree. Velocity=speed=pips over time. Actual volume is impossible to measure, so tick volume is used as a proxy by some for real volume. But tick volume is v.v.v. tightly correlated to OHLC data, which you can see on a normal ...

Difference between speed, momentum and volume??

Ignorant, arrogant and patronising. That's got to be a hattrick. If timeframe affects profitability (it does), adjust position size accordingly. If it doesn't, don't. It's that simple.

Position Size vs Time Frame

Can I back it up... what, here in public? In short though, yes I do use that measure (efficiency ratio as Rabid described it) as to the degree of trending. It does have limitations, eg you can be moving in direction of trend and yet volatility > ...

Position Size vs Time Frame

OK sure... but I'm not talking about your reasons for entry, be they a 5 min chart or what have you. If timeframes were irrelevant, the probabilities of a random entry, ignoring the spread, on a 1:3 trade would be equal whether you're risking 1 pip ...

Position Size vs Time Frame

Not according to my watch they're not... Mathematically, the hourlies are very different to the dailies. The hourlies range more than they trend, the dailies trend more than they range. This tells you one important thing - you cannot trade the ...

Position Size vs Time Frame

Pretty simple — Not a lot too mine - there are those which are essential for trading - account size, % at risk on one trade and how much this means in ££, £ / pip (based on SLs), contract size, but the one that holds golden position at the top ...

Statistics to Trade By

Interesting cheers Rabid, will take a look at that over the weekend. As for IFR - they are about as accurate as those UBS S/R levels that get published. Sometimes surprisingly accurate, others, way off target. From this morning for eg: [04:05 GMT ...

On the topic of BS in trading forums...

I know... it's pretty grizzly. I started a while back here: url My maths wasn't up to scratch to reproduce a Garch model, so I modelled EWMA - and it came out as slightly worse than a simple ATR. Typical. It does seem logical IVs should be better ...

On the topic of BS in trading forums...

First off, Hanover, great post and a whole bunch of wisdom in that... and anyone who thinks it long winded, clearly hasn't understood it properly. Good luck with the future endeavours too. Re exits, I've been sweating over these for some time now, ...

On the topic of BS in trading forums...

23%. Not exactly high frequency - successful trades take about 1-2 days. I'm sceptical of high frequency strategies around here. The quality of your edge to overcome the spread hurdle is so big, I think it's pretty much impossible as a retail ...

risk reward / win loss

OK, I operate with volatility adjusted TPs (gasp) and stops, operating on a 1:5 basis. Given that probability changes with different risk reward profiles, I've found that the most profitable trading occurs when you start as far to the left of this ...

risk reward / win loss

Hmmm, honestly? Can you say hand on heart you've properly backtested this over a decent amount of time? Or that with the numbers you've chosen, the method has some bearing on buyers and sellers decisions to buy/sell? Or is it you think that you've ...

My experimental daytrading system

This and DTs post pretty much nail the differences and advantages of averaging down, and explain why you get such polarised opinions on it. If you're more systematic in your trading style, averaging down makes no sense. If you're more discretionary, ...

why is everyone so afraid to average down?