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- Submitted Jul 16, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

The market at best was looking to a quiet start to the week and not for the systematic EUR leaking already underway this morning. The single currency was given a lofty leg up on Friday the thirteen as the dollar retreated from a two-year low on fear ...
- Submitted Jul 14, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|6 comments

As traders, we were told never to trade Friday the 13th. If we did, it was going to hurt. After yesterday’s short squeeze and Goldman’s revised one year EUR recommendation (1.40), the long dollar positions took it on the chin. Already this week the ...
- Submitted Jul 14, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

It seems that the post EU summit euphoria has completely unwound in most equity markets, but not enough in FX. All week long analysts have been pointing out that that Asian currencies or their indexes remain somewhat firm against the USD and ...
- Submitted Jul 13, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

Without either monetary or political development that can meaningfully compress sovereign spreads the odds are tipped for the EUR to retest sub 1.21 again. Peripheral markets are tighter in what optically looks like short covering. ‘Real money’ is ...
- Submitted Jul 12, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|1 comment

We are getting there ever so slowly, it will be done and that’s the early 1.21 trading handle of the single currency objective set out at the beginning of the week. The Eurogroup, Ecofin and Fed efforts are coming to nought while the risk aversion ...
- Submitted Jul 11, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|2 comments

These markets are weird, every time one individual sells, another one buys, and they both think they’re smart. There is very little new to say when price action is dead and there are no fundamental changes. All one can hope for is that they have the ...
- Submitted Jul 10, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

In capital markets big picture, downside risk for the EUR continues to build. All the market has to do is focus on sovereign distress and banking fragilities. However, despite the single currency currently being the weakest link in the FX chain, ...
- Submitted Jul 9, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

If it did appear that the Euro Summit two weeks ago was too good to be true, it was. Finally it seemed that Italy had defeated Germany twice in one week. First on the pitch in the Eurocup semi-final and a second time on the European Summit where all ...
- Submitted Jul 9, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|6 comments

We have been warned again. Chinese and EUR rhetoric over the weekend has many taking a breather, sucking in the dismal US employment report and better preparing themselves for Chinese trade and sales data later in the week, especially after been ...
- Submitted Jul 7, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

Consensus believes that the tepid NFP print is not so bad that it would trigger some sort of immediate Fed reaction in the form of new stimulus. The reality is that the US unemployment rate is stuck, hiring rates are modest, and the bottom has not ...
- Submitted Jul 6, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|2 comments

We are back to where we started, well almost. The benefit of last week’s EU summit has been erased amongst periphery product yields. Spanish Bonos have come under pressure again following yesterday’s turmoil. Today’s weakness is being attributed to ...
- Submitted Jul 4, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|3 comments

Eurozone service data was better than expected but still shows a steady decline that could force the European Central Bank to cut rates tomorrow. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points but some analysts are warning that it ...
- Submitted Jun 30, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

Focus this week happened to be on what was occurring across the pond. Stateside data had limited direct influence on the big dollar, that was left up to the EU summit outcome. The Euro relief or short covering pain is beginning to find some hidden ...
- Submitted Jun 30, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

Markets sole focus this week has been on the EU summit. Investors have been expecting the outcome to “define the next short-term trend before ECB policy expectations come into play next week.” The market has been squeezed ever since this mornings ...
- Submitted Jun 29, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

The reality, market expectations were low heading into this weeks Euro summit. It is only natural to end the week witnessing some further squeezing of the record EUR short positions after this morning early Euro summit announcement. On the whole, ...
- Submitted Jun 29, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|5 comments

Germany has been outflanked twice in a day, both by Italy and once on the football pitch. This EU summit was in danger of getting away without anything of substance being produced. However, with global capital markets watching on, and investors ...
- Submitted Jun 26, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

Expect these markets to be sucking mostly wind until something more concrete comes of this weeks EU summit. Even with Italy and Spain back in the debt market today, investors focus remains firmly on Thursday and Friday. So far this morning, the ...
- Submitted Jun 25, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

And we thought last week was going to be a specifically difficult week to get a handle on things? This market is already beginning to feel like it wants to throw another major wobbly now that the single currency has managed to register a cent ...