By the looks of it, the odds that we won't see 3171 next week are high, and if today closes below 3001 then 3047 should also be defend, at least at week start.

EurAnalysis

People elect the politicians who promise free stuff and low taxes. Once in office, politicians who know all too well it's impossible to deliver both free stuff and low taxes to the people, unless the government (that is the people, since the ...

How did 'rich' economies get so in debt?

Yep, it is there. H4 is usually the max timeframe I follow though. edit: H4 bearish engulfing completed

EurAnalysis

Yep, never a sure a thing. Last week's high is likely to be retested from a statistic viewpoint. However, we do have regular bearish divergence on H4, and in ~15mins we might get a H4 bearish engulfing as well. There's potential for a nice move down ...

EurAnalysis

Moving to BE. Curious to see how far it goes.

EurAnalysis

Okay I recognize that chart... Anyway my answer to your question (if you accept it) was implicit in previous post... no bullish candle on the current downswing means near-term momentum is to the downside... last swing low @ ~7400 means downside ...

Take the Emotional Bias Test!

If it the instrument doesn't exist then by definition there is no correct answer to your question Also, personally I'd need more information than presented in the chart to be able to make a trade call. Anyway, just for kicks, I wouldn't buy or ...

Take the Emotional Bias Test!

Hey Wulfgar, Just to make it clear I'm still bullish EU, just not as much as last week, as I think a deeper correction may happen before the next significant move to the upside. Also, I agree with your interpretation of the fundamentals. The Fed is ...

EurAnalysis

Skies are kinda cloudy next week! I do however, expect to a lesser degree more of the same: consolidation/retrace at week start, followed by bullish continuation. Not expecting as much upside potential as past week as a deeper retrace is due. As ...

EurAnalysis

Nothing magical about it. Different traders will swear by different timezones/hours. For me the correct time to calculate pivots is NY session close (10 pm GMT) as that represents the 'end' of a daily trading session from a north hemisphere ...

OMG! I discovered the correct Forex Daily Pivot time zone!

The OP cherrypicked the month... sigh. If OP said January, February, March, April, whatever month of the year was harder to trade then I would have presented examples for that month. Either way you'll always think you're right, so you know what, you ...

Is August the most difficult trading month?

Think what you will. It seems you completely miss the point. The trades (entries/stops/targets) used in the examples were produced by a real trading strategy, so they are actually repeatable. The months where the trades happened, however, obviously ...

Is August the most difficult trading month?

Hey Wulfgar, I see same EU resistance as you do. I expect the week to start with a correction, main weekly move being to the upside. However, I'll trade only what I see. Enjoy the weekend.

EurAnalysis

August is just a month like any other. Same with December. It's not harder nor easier to trade than any other month. I propose a thought experiment: Let's suppose you are trading EURUSD from the daily charts using a 20 pips hard stop and a 2000 pips ...

Is August the most difficult trading month?

You mean moderate historical drawdown. It's not like there's any limit to drawdown. The market keeps changing and your system's expectancy will surely change with it. Worst case scenario, expectancy may turn negative. That said, actual drawdown ...

the big brother running to help you :)

Yours is one of the most sensible posts on the thread, however i disagree with a tiny bit: the Average win: Average loss expression. R:R alone is indeed oversimplistic, cause RR is not independent of hit ratio% (probability of win). Both RR and hit ...

Risk Reward: 1:1, 1:2 or 1:3

For the doubters in less than 1:1 RR/believers of 1:3 RR, here's a copy/paste of a PROFITABLE friend's myfxbook (not publishing link cause he might not like it, but i assure you these stats are real). Also i expect everyone here to know how to ...

Risk Reward: 1:1, 1:2 or 1:3

IMO, the answer you are/were seeking is simple, but it will not come easily for a number of reasons. Chief among them, RR is not independent of Hit Ratio, therefore the right answer may vary dramatically across systems, which takes us to the ...

Risk Reward: 1:1, 1:2 or 1:3