I agree with Riskcuit. What changes are the relative values, but the ratios remain essentially the same. You can easily proof this yourself. Just download H1 and M1 data from your platform, calculate in Excel the average body and wick sizes and ...

Trading made simple with added BS

Spot on. Imo this fits very well with the wick to range ratio of 2 x 25 % and the body to range ratio of 50 %

Trading made simple with added BS

Just a small programming exercise to avoid getting rusty (and to present more beautiful plots than in my last post). And of course to support nunrgguy's statements: First the frequency distributions for OH and OL ranges in bull/bear candles: ...

Trading made simple with added BS

Shit. I already found a way to produce distributions for given means, variances, skewnesses and kurtosis. However, I cannot find the R code that I've used to produce the image posted yesterday anymore. Moreover, how should I have modelled the ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

Well, I could do it tomorrow. But remember, this is just a coin tossing simulation. Thus, not really a skew or curtosis ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

Allow me to complement this. Under the assumption of a random walk market I wanted to know which kind of candlesticks I can expect on average. Thus, I considered a random walk with (-1, +1) increments and generated 10000 candlesticks with 10000 ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

A great argument imo. I never thought that way, but this would be supported by the fact that bullish and bearish candlesticks occur almost as often during up and down trends than during ranges. The only difference is that some candles are longer ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

Nice to see you back. Also thanks to bring my attention to Neio's thread! You're of course right, there are differences between a Gaussian random walk and the markets. However, I haven't said I think it needs to be a Gaussian random walk. Indeed, if ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

I think what he meant is that the high/low of a candlestick will be made with high probability short after the opening time and short before the close time of that candlestick. From my studies I know that in a bullish candlestick the low will be ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

Hey RC, thanks for passing by. I checked your posts and was amazed to see that you also quantitatively analyzed price movements. In regards to CP and targeting only special trades. Yes, I agree - I think my heatmap as well as the ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

The idea was this: Assume that common TFs are arbitrary cut-off points that cut prices into bars. However, you could create your own candlesticks, e.g. once 1000 ticks (price changes, not neccessarily 1/10 pip) occured. However, you can create these ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

Yes, I somewhat agree. However, I haven't focussed that much on the open. My attempt to investigate the single candlestick in the last days was like this: Compare the current candlestick with the average candlestick. Then, what is the potential if ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

What a pity such nuggets haven't been discussed more ... Another proof of the inefficiency of forums. My take on this. Below is the distribution for close wick ranges, given particular open wick ranges. The red rectangle is imo the region where the ...

Trading made simple with added BS

[quote=apprendista;14142875]As you may know zig-zag does repaint and if you want to see the history of the path of zig-zag you can actually use the main indicator with the same parameter as zig zag. Can you see from the image that when the channel ...

Where the Opportunities Exist

You're just allowed to start own threads after you've made 20 reviewed posts. However, please search a thread where your question fits better - not here. This thread was intended to investigate trading opportunities around reference points!

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

Dear Ihlas, please start your own thread to post your trading ideas. However, this has nothing to do with the discussion I am looking for ... Thanks for your understanding!

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

A good question. And not just "Where have you gone pros?" but also "Where have you gone former FF members that liked to discuss and give opinions with open minds?". It looks like these times are maybe over? It speaks volumes about the FF members ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

Absolutely. If you like to, my P0 would be the close, wouldn't it? So the idea in my head is to measure how strong the close deviated from multiple opens (i.e. in a H4, H1 and H15 candlestick. Only looking at the current price won't help us, because ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

Well, it's just the numbers I've used in my first posts. But I agree, you could use any numbers. Would you mind to explain? Why London noon? Yes, volatility will differ for different times and thus you'll have a better chance to make more profits ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

Thank you all for your contributions so far. As previously announced, below I'm posting the imaginable qualitative combinations of 4 price points, P0, P15, P60, and P240. Simultaneously I'm running some stats to see whether some of these ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?