The face of statistical integrity

Trump: Nominating Dr. E.J. Antoni as BLS commissioner

1258 days left in DT's term means only 13 more extensions!

Trump Signs Executive Order Extending China Deadline By 90 Days; New Deadline Sunday 9th...

This is not some theoretical debate, it is clearly apparent from real world outcomes that central bank independence improves inflation outcomes: ...

Abolish the monarchy at the Federal Reserve

He will likely be present/voting at the October and December meetings, I also don't expect anything crazy but not impossible

Trump nominee Miran could have a surprising effect on the Fed: giving officials more freedom...

Futures up because this was best case chips tariff. The exemption is so ill defined and large that few will pay, so the effective tariff will be much much lower. If I run a chip company I would just announce plans then keep pushing back until DT's ...

Trump: Significant steps toward ultimate goal of ensuring that iPhones sold in the US are made...

Revisions in the same direction, but it helped Biden and hurt Trump? Flood the zone! Tariffs are good for you! The US economy is the hottest in the world!

Trump: Last weeks Job’s Report was rigged, just like the numbers prior to the Presidential...

Was waiting for this one lol, the implication being that they boosted the numbers for Trump as well? Good riddance to McEntarfer though, tough to confuse 100k and 10k without complete incompetence. Also why did he put his own name in quotes? No more ...

Trump: I was informed that our country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden...

*FED'S BOSTIC: DOESN'T THINK JOBS DATA WOULD HAVE CHANGED THIS WEEK'S FOMC DECISION Hahaha sure, 2 dissenters when everyone thought the labor market was strong and stable, imagine how many with the real figures. Just look at equities, potential rate ...

Fed's Bostic: The jobs data was significant, revisions were bigger story - CNBC

BLS needs to FIGURE IT OUT! Absurdly wrong, would have been a completely different conversation at the meeting on Wednesday with the correct figures.

The US Employment Situation -- July 2025

106k in the last THREE months? Throw in the towel, it's time to cut.

Fed's Hammack: Jobs data was disappointing

Why would they care? The "good" option of 15% tariffs is only marginally better than the "bad" option of 20%. All it takes is one investment of $600b to shave off a couple of percentage points.

Trump Warns India Could Face Tariffs Between 20% And 25%

XD True, September at 63% though, I think that will swing significantly on the tone of the statement/press conference/dissent

Will the US Fed Cut Interest Rates in July?

Ctrl-C / Ctrl-V Can you come up with some other talking point?

The U.S. economy is thriving in spite of tariffs. Will it last?

Agreed it is quite strange, my best theory is that earlier this year the trade war weakened US economic prospects and led to a rotation out of USD/Treasuries/US equities, but that is no longer the assumption now?

Trump: We have reached a deal with EU

You are right, but the market was fearing worse: no deal would have meant higher tariffs. Here is the weekend EURUSD: image

Trump: We have reached a deal with EU

1. Literally gave you the breakdown, if you don't think my post addresses elasticity I don't know what to tell you 2. Also addressed, the world economy is not just the US and China 3. GDP has increased as the share of manufacturing has decreased, ...

Tariffs likely to drive up U.S. prices even with Trump trade deals, experts say

Where will the tariffs be accounted for? Options: 1) Consumer demand strong, firms pass on tariff costs - Inflation 2) Consumer demand strong, firms absorb tariff costs - Hit to Earnings/Equity Market 3) Consumer demand weak, firms pass on tariff ...

Tariffs likely to drive up U.S. prices even with Trump trade deals, experts say

USCMA exemption is doing some heavy lifting here, I think that explains the lack of urgency

Trump says US may not reach trade deal with Canada

This is better than market expectations for durables, how would this do anything?

US Durable Goods Orders Declined 9.3% in June

Undue influence? XD Sounds like someone is mad they can't set rates. Should have held out for the Fed job!

Bessent: Fed's footprint has become too big