humans have a tendency to see patterns where there are none, hence clouds can look like horses. Superstition and God believes are highly prevalent in our societies.

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

I agree with most of what you have written here on this post, except please define what you mean by lagging signal. Lagging LN(Yt/L^nYt) by taking ACF and PACF shows negligible serial correlation within 95% confidence bands. If you are speaking ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

I think the challenge is that the series are not auto correlated, so that the next value is very hard to be predicted because your white noise factor I am assuming is in a random normal distribution assumption...which to me, it seems like you are ...

Trade based on Autoregressive Model

I disagree with you on some levels... what are time frames? what do you mean by that? why are we drawing trend lines according to formation of candles..... I think price levels especially ending in 0 and 5 show evidence of clustering. read about the ...

Any online service that shows S/R lines?

Let me illustrate my point further... I converted the Eur/Usd Daily log returns since July 2011 into a binary data to simplify my hypothesis. [1] 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 [41] 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 ...

Just a bit of advice, for anyone, for free

I don't think that is the implication at all. Please read about Hurst exponent, all it means is that time series has an underlying tendency which is estimated by such exponent. The implication is that the Eur/Usd is not a random walk, there is ...

Just a bit of advice, for anyone, for free

Copernicus: yeah I agree, it is not as easy as everyone here purports it to be, Everyone FF is profitable...Haven't you noticed? Here some further points...if the data is random akin to a coin flip with 50% probability then in the long term we will ...

Just a bit of advice, for anyone, for free

Good Afternoon Katroo, I have a question for you. I have ran statistical studies on the Euro, read many a papers on quantitative and technical analysis. I have been trading on and off for a couple of years with relative success, however It seems to ...

Just a bit of advice, for anyone, for free

it was unclear whether the FED was going to raise rates....that was driving the value of the dollar, now that NFP was less than expected the implication is that the FED will most likely keep interest rates unchanged which changes my bias towards USD ...

Can anyone explain why all JPY pairs suddenly fell downwards?

I am not sure what you mean, Let me rephrase what I stated. There is a certain volatility or sigma/ standard deviation of returns either daily, hourly etc that the market moves... if your stop is within sigma 2 it is mathematically probable that it ...

Moving stop to break even or not

It makes no sense to me, unless your stop is away from Volatility at least sigma 2 otherwise assuming normality and Brownian motion we can expect your stop to be hit

Moving stop to break even or not

url you could write your data to Excel from R, Download R Studio....it makes it easier you can get data from Federal Reserve Economic Data or Oanda....

Need to understand correlation - please help?

It doesn't Matter what is called, Price won't do anything as a result of it. It however is a great indicator of what price did, look at the price where it stopped falling... all it means is that selling pressure stopped at that price at that ...

What would you call this candle pattern?

What I mean by testing the philosophy is what katroo outline. What % of the time did mean reversion work etcAny time you take a position you're predicting price will move away from your quoted transaction, please explain how a trader does not need ...

Just a bit of advice, for anyone, for free

Try dowloading R cran then quantmod package getSymbols() function will pull data from src="oanda" or src="FRED" Now turn it to log returns and run cor(x,y)

Need to understand correlation - please help?

I didn't think anyone else was interested in my brain storming and rants, there was a lot of great contributions from other traders.

Looking at Exchange Rates in a Scientific way

Eloquently and clearly stated, Yes that is what I meant, however that is not enough. Every Hypothesis (which includes not only the "philosophy" but the set up itself) , needs to be tested. what is the probability, or what % of the time did the ...

Just a bit of advice, for anyone, for free

Hey Katrooo, I Find your thread very interesting, I have a slightly different view on the ubiquitous "there is more than one way to skin a cat" argument that I see here in forex factory. I bet if we analyze the cat skinning business we can see ...

Just a bit of advice, for anyone, for free

sounds interesting what is the implication?

Breakout, Fakeout or a Reversal?

exactly, the market has baffled the brightest of minds. All our statistical tests point to it being random yet we have evidence that it isn't.

Breakout, Fakeout or a Reversal?