Nope, this is institutional research - one bank, one opinion. No serious investor uses these opinions for actual trading. But institutional level players use it for directional bias, mapping out the next couple of years, iow strategic decisions. ...

The Swamp

All I can read everywhere (by bank analysts) is how bearish EUR is, this is a "temporary" "consolidation", "most likely down from here", etc. Yet eu was 1305 when Ukraine started and I'd bet a fair chunk of money that by the time there's a ceasefire ...

The Swamp

There's 5bn+ between 0950-1000. I wonder if they'll be so much OTM on all of that in 4 hours. And there's 5bn++ below 1.1000 for the next couple of days too. That's a lot of money for option writers to pay out. Even if there's an actual ceasefire.

The Swamp

That's very cool, now we have a target.

The Swamp

upcoming large opex: 03-25 1.6bn @ 1.1000 03-29 2.2bn @ 1.1000, 1.1bn @ 1.1086-00 03-30 2.2bn @ 1.1000, 1.3bn @ 1.1050-60, 1.1bn @ 1.1100 expect 1.1000 to be strong support going forward

The Swamp

Same thing with buyers over 1010 tomorrow. If we close the week above 1010 (or gator's 1019) then we might quickly see 1150, (gap fill) and 1300 first, then 1470(90). Either way it's getting compressed here.

The Swamp

liquidity

The Swamp

A cliff diver doesn't jump down, he jumps up to take a dive. I am trying to find the most logical place for the aerial dive. I don't think it's straight down.

The Swamp

Well we can assume that these sells were in the red. They don't sell unless they are staring into the abyss. We also know that today's & yesterday's volume was a fraction of the usual on debt as well as currency markets. They didn't sell any shorts. ...

The Swamp

In fact, they puked 40k longs. That's a BIG number.

The Swamp

I'm really curious about the calculus that they're doing. Because they have investments, they don't want to get sanctioned also for cooperating with Russia, etc., but OTOH they want a situation where they are the only ones who are buying and selling ...

The Swamp

Citi, Credit Suisse, HSBC, Deutsche all predict 50. Most others also say 125-175 this year, and in 2-3 steps. It's pretty evident Fed will have to do 50 steps at one point. On CME 95% expect 25-50 and 4% expect 0-25. I don't think 50 will shock ...

The Swamp

I guess a Fed disappointment might do it. My sense is that the market has been pricing in a biggish raise since before the war. But I can't make a prediction whether the Fed is still going to raise (as much as is expected) in this environment. Also, ...

The Swamp

The thing is, they were always ready for it. It's not like they chose war instead...

The Swamp

It says it's an AFP story, but I don't see it on either AFP nor you'd think at least some other news agencies would've quoted it by now.

The Swamp

The part I don't get is what anyone gains by nuking shit. Living in a bunker for the rest of your life? 'Cause you won't be able to resurface for a century at least. I pray to get the direct hit instead, thanks. Just think what life in a bunker, ...

The Swamp

Not a nuclear war is not.

The Swamp

Also, many fx traders use metatrader - a russian platform. Might be prudent to re-examine exposure along with Cyprus based brokers.

The Swamp

as a matter of fact the SNB is in the market, the rest are suspect there's definitely fuckery afoot

The Swamp

OK, by 'everyone' I meant countries' leadership plus a huge portion of the citizenry. I don't have numbers. But there were celebrations on the streets all across Europe. Obviously people sent to die weren't that keen. And this was WWI when everybody ...

The Swamp