Well no, the Fed has a dual mandate. They want to fight inflation, and to support economic growth. Ultimately, despite this hot print, the bond market is not buying the growth story. US 10-year Treasury yields have barely moved higher and are still ...

US retail sales up 0.6% in August from July even as tariffs hurt jobs and lead to price hikes

You're god damn right.

Trump: We have deal on TikTok

400BPS TIKTOK RATE CUT INCOMING.

Trump: We have deal on TikTok

I think employment prints are a bit hard to price in properly without other data, mainly because employment is so varied now. Zero hours contracts, gig economy etc. Someone can work AND claim unemployment benefits at different thresholds. Unless you ...

US retail sales up 0.6% in August from July even as tariffs hurt jobs and lead to price hikes

No worries, this gives the hawks on the FOMC an arsenal of ammunition. While they will acknowledge the weaker labour market, they can now point to a remarkably resilient consumer as a reason to be far more cautious about easing policy. A 50bps cut ...

US retail sales up 0.6% in August from July even as tariffs hurt jobs and lead to price hikes

My expectation of a weak "control group" was wrong. At +0.5%, this is a robust print that points to a strong start for Q3 goods consumption and will force economists to revise their GDP forecasts higher. This is the cleanest and most important ...

US retail sales up 0.6% in August from July even as tariffs hurt jobs and lead to price hikes

Core Retail Sales m/m View: +0.6% Consensus: +0.4% Previous: +0.3% • Larger beat on core vs headline; strips out autos, leaving +ve drivers more exposed • Inflationary aspect of petrol key component of this reading • Resilient e-commerce, expected ...

United States FX Today: US Dollar holds steady ahead of Retail Sales data

Yeah, it is interesting how a lot of that instability appears to not really be priced into the value of the Euro at the moment. Whether that's due to the politicisation of the Fed cancelling it out as a second order effect, or if because the ...

Lagarde: Stability through balance: rethinking power in a connected world

This was not a really monetary policy speech; it was a geopolitical manifesto. While it contained no new information on interest rates or inflation forecasts, its underlying message is profoundly relevant and bullish for the Euro in the long term. ...

Lagarde: Stability through balance: rethinking power in a connected world

It's definitely a damning report - it definitely increases the chance of a 50bps cut; however, I still wouldn't bet my house on it!

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

We're ramping up...

Trump: “Too Late” must cut interest rates, now, and bigger than he had in mind. Housing will...

Although a regional report, it is a collapse across every important metric, both present and future. Headline Plunges into Contraction. The General Business Conditions index fell from +11.9 to -8.7. The forecast was for +4.3. This is a huge surprise ...

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Is Daniel forward-looking, or simply deluded? You decide.

The Fed Models Were Wrong About The US Economy

CNY | PBoC - Macro Flash Note The Narrative & Current Regime: • PBoC face stalled/uneven economic recovery after significant domestic headwinds but receiving significant tailwind from broad US dollar weakness. • Key data from China this Monday will ...

New round of US-China trade talks kicks off in Madrid

USD | Fed - Macro Flash Note The Narrative & Current Regime: • Narrative anchored on Fed pivot driven by weakening labour market. • Market thinks last week's spike in jobless claims more important forward-looking signal, looking past ...

A divided Fed is expected to settle on a 25-basis-point cut this week. The key question is,...

USD | Fed - Macro Flash Note The Narrative & Current Regime: • Narrative anchored on Fed pivot driven by weakening labour market. • Market thinks last week's spike in jobless claims more important forward-looking signal, looking past ...

US Stagflation: First Signs Are Here

This type of politicisation of the Fed will surely become the norm...

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder Climbs Ranks of Fed Chair Contenders

I'll save people 3 minutes, short answer, yes. When asked if the easing cycle is over, Lagarde pivoted and said "The disinflationary process is over."

Is the ECB done with Interest Rate Cuts?

Speaking freely (rather than objectively), I am inclined to agree with you, more cuts are needed. The labour market outlook makes for grim reading at the moment. However, the hot CPI print, increased inflation expectations and Powell's general ...

UMich September prelim consumer sentiment 55.4 vs 58.0 expected

25bps is already priced in, 50bps is now unlikely due to the hotter-than-expected CPI print yesterday. Further, sell-side analysts are almost all universally pricing in sequential cuts for the next four Fed meetings. This widening policy divergence ...

UMich September prelim consumer sentiment 55.4 vs 58.0 expected