Yeah, I wonder why, but somehow it really did just start to smell a little bit like bullshit.

Proof of Profitability

Can you define a setup out of that? Rules that are defining - the line - when to open buy / sell - when to close buy / sell - controlling risk Personally I would give it a try as I like simple systems. They are easy to code and we would find out ...

Proof of Profitability

I come back to you as quick as possible. But it will take some days as eastern is coming and I am on a little journey for the holidays.

Proof of Profitability

I do not think too, that it will work forever. An interesting sight on market behavior and developement deliveres the adaptive market hypothesis by Andrew Lo ( url wiki link. Searching for the originial paper and reading is worth it!). Strategies ...

Proof of Profitability

I can´t tell you how long it will work. That is a question I was already asking myself. But I can tell you how long it still works. I tested from 2007 till now. From about 2011 the strategy started to become profitable with sl and tp in different ...

Proof of Profitability

Hi C! Have a look at the post above. It is also related to your post. In another post you wrote you would like to take part at the comparison between different stop losses but you cant because you are not using an EA for your trend trading approach. ...

Proof of Profitability

Hey PipMeUp! Thank you for taking the time comprehending my thoughts and giving me some criticism. Only with reflection there can be improvement. To examine it in a kind of scientific way there should be a view not only on the series that end up ...

Proof of Profitability

I think now I understand what you mean. And you are right, the formula assumes no edge at all. I use the formula to plot the curve "Chance to hit SL...". The curve shows that the stop loss is hit more often the smaller the stop loss is in relation ...

Proof of Profitability

Hi stt, that is a good point. In your example a stop loss smaller than 10 pips would lead to a worse result. The stop loss cannot be minimized further than the strategy is allowing it. It must stay profitable. For the other direction it is the same. ...

Proof of Profitability

Thanks for the hint that there seems to be something wrong. Did you change something in my post? Because what there stands now is not right either: Correct would be: P (SL) = TP / (SL + TP) = 20 / (1 + 20) = 20 / 21 = 95% And in the next sentences ...

Proof of Profitability

The last post shows results from my trading accounts (just to make sure that this is not mixed up as I want to compare the theoretical estimation in the first post with live ruslts). The assumption is that for the average drawdown a simulated ...

Proof of Profitability

Glad to hear that someone sees it the same way. The two trade explorers attached above are on different brokers. So it is a little bit hard to compare them (especially gainsy seems to be really some kind of bucket shop with a huge lack of liquidity. ...

Proof of Profitability

To analyze a strategy means to screen it in an extensive way. After that the results must be visualized in a way that allows forming an opinion at the first view. To make a backtest or an optimization with Meta Trader is easy. But it is not that ...

Proof of Profitability

What do you think about the statement that using no stop loss means not limiting risk. What basically means to risk the whole account with each trade.

Proof of Profitability

I would not say there is something missing . It is just focussing on the relation between drawdown and stop loss for a strategy that is at least a bit profitable. What about drawdown and stop loss for a strategy that has a win loss ratio of 2 is ...

Proof of Profitability

If you try to find regularities with a statistically approach you need to reduce the framework until you can put it into a model. So it will be hardly possible to transfer it one to one on a market because markets simply do not behave like that. I ...

Proof of Profitability

The relation between stop loss and drawdown is estimated for a winning trader, not a losing one. (Look above: It is doing that until it has a result that is at least a bit profitable.) If your trading strategy is successful then your drawdown will ...

Proof of Profitability

Ive chosen the name of this thread for a specific reason. Although I did not hit the topic directly in my first post. Let me do that now. I trade forex for about five or six years. I learned to code mql4 before I started to trade as I wanted to run ...

Proof of Profitability

I actually wanted to make a live test between to EAs. One trading with a stop loss of 5 pips and one trading with a stop loss of 2 pips to check out the difference between the draw down. The first one is attached as a trade explorer. Can someone ...

Proof of Profitability