Good to see the dots nicely match! I am curious how you will now apply this knowledge about the win rate to your strategy. Vary the lot sizes based on this? Vary the SL/TP levels?

Forex R-Multiple & Win/Loss Correlation Table

Thanks for the suggestion. Haven't tried that one yet. I often use Martin Ratio (or the underlying Ulcer Index in some cases).

How often do you Re-Optimize your EA

Thanks @EgoNoBueno for providing the code! I cross-compiled the code to MT5 because I prefer the backtester of that platform. If the strategy turns out to be worthwhile, I will make the effort to port the source code to MQL5. file I did a quick ...

Automating a Support/Resistance Forex Hedging System

It depends... First of all, try to make your EA less sensitive to changing market conditions by relating thresholds to ATR, express your SL/TP as a percentage of price rather than absolute number of pips/points, lot sizes as a percentage of current ...

How often do you Re-Optimize your EA

I can't remember what the Results tab looked like in MT4, but perhaps you mean the tab with all the statistics? That one is named "Backtest": image It is not available until the backtest has completed.

Basic EA that buys and sells every candle

There is a thread ongoing about a specific three-candle pattern. Perhaps that might interest you: url

(binned per thread starter's request) Researching and testing

I did not watch the youtube series, but going by the graphs I guess he calculates currency strength and then trades the mean reversal of the strongest vs weakest pair? You write "solid". What annualized returns are you getting? Your FF account is ...

S.A.T.O.R.I. - unconventional forex trading

At the extremes you get measurement errors because either the TP or SL is tiny. This means your backtest simulation is extra sensitive to slippage, spread, commission because the position is closed in only a few ticks after opening. You could ...

Forex R-Multiple & Win/Loss Correlation Table

Always good to double check your assumptions. Nice that your measurements confirmed this. Only at the extreme ends of your table, the math doesn't add up, but I assume these are just noise measurements with very little samples.

Forex R-Multiple & Win/Loss Correlation Table

There is no need to measure this. If you assume the market is a random walk, you can simply calculate using: winrate = 100% * (1 - RR/(RR+1)) For example: RR = 5.0 winrate = 100% * (1 - 5.0/6.0) = 16.7% Hope this helps. Good luck

Forex R-Multiple & Win/Loss Correlation Table

Indeed, Dinpappa, you are right that there is no mathematical advantage. In fact, for most brokers there is a disadvantage. When you are fully hedged you have paid your broker commission to be effectively out of the market! Moreover, with most ...

The best idea for stoploss?

Hmm... 32*20 - 6*154 < 0

(binned per thread starter's request) Researching and testing

You're a brave man :-) So when do you exit in that case? Time-based after 100 hours?

(binned per thread starter's request) Researching and testing

image image TP = 154 is too much for only 100 H1 bars. But with TP = 35 you can see clear patterns similar to your plot in post #55. Unfortunately, a lot of dots are near the leftmost border which means price started to go south right after ...

(binned per thread starter's request) Researching and testing

Ok, clear. I'll try to reproduce your result. So your assumption is that when a candle pattern has any predictive power, you expect to get a high before a low (in case of a Buy)? What is not clear to me is how you intend to make money with this ...

(binned per thread starter's request) Researching and testing

Happy to check, but I am not sure how to read your scatter plot. If you put the TP at 35 pips, and the dots represent all cases were the TP was hit, then I expected all the dots to be on a vertical line at PosMax=35 pips with various PosMin pips. ...

(binned per thread starter's request) Researching and testing

Sorry, I messed up my post while editing. If you refresh the page it should be all good now. Even worse: as you can see in the graph, sometimes price first visits -140 pips before reaching the +35 pips TP. So by exiting your trade at -140 pips you ...

(binned per thread starter's request) Researching and testing

Suppose we go long and set a TP at +35 pips. In those 20% of the cases the TP was not reached, what prices did it touch? image In those 80% of the cases the TP was reached, what prices did it touch before reaching the TP? image It is this last ...

(binned per thread starter's request) Researching and testing

Yes, I was able to reproduce your observation! Here is a histogram of the price excursion on GU after 100 H1 bars: image Well, now it looks like you can easily make 35 pips, but the question is what to do in the 20% of the cases that the price is ...

(binned per thread starter's request) Researching and testing

Ok, perhaps a bit off-topic, but I doubt marketmakers do that. There are thousands of possible strategies they would all need to sabotage. No, most traders are "gamblers" (Martingale, Grid, Averaging Down, etc.) and will themselves take care of ...

(binned per thread starter's request) Researching and testing