Me too, and I agree. Still, P/E of 115 and dividend yield of 1.33% doesn't make for high npv, or does it? What time period would you need to take it over to make it positive? How many hundred years?

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

It's the old 76.4% trick.

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

Indeed, but valuations don't seem to matter much right now. One day they will. Agreed. Fascinating times we live in...

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

Short from 13012.5 hoping for yesterday's low.

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

Yes, perhaps that what we should be doing, but I find the macro view interesting. Opinions are my own thank you very much.

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

Oh, but this isn't trading - it's online banter. And as such, I was hoping that you would make a contribution for the sake of the argument. You may criticise others, but if you don't offer a perspective of your own, it doesn't make for good ...

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

I would have appreciated if you had answered my questions or given some helpful advice. Instead you attack me as a person. You're now on my ignore list.

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

Well, you never know. Last time around I advised people to start getting out of equities at the end of May 2007. Dow made a high 500 points above in October, after having been down 1100 points from the end of May before that. So end of May was a ...

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

And if I use that method on previous boom-bust cycles I get less helpful results....What's the objective method that doesn't involve fitting input to desired result, please?

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

Well, you've removed the pitchfork I referred to I guess that says something. As to your method of choosing the three points - unless you formulate a method with bakctested results - looks very much like subjective curve-fitting. Differently ...

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

And here is, in my view, the correct way to draw a pitchfork for the long term view of the DOW. It differs from yours above. Care to comment?

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

You connect a low before a boom with a low after a correction. That is questionable in my view. A new regime starts in the market after the correction. I've used your technique on the DOW to illustrate my point. See below. Could you please briefly ...

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

Yes, but there is so much subjectivity in how you draw pitchforks. Here's a DAX weekly chart and a couple of pitchforks. Of what use are they? Were they drawn incorrectly? Could pitchforks have been used to shed light on price action from the ...

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

For comparison, the all-time-high in EURUSD.

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

Where is the evidence supporting them for longer-term charts? Meanwhile, here you have the exact same method applied to the last three market booms.

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

Hmm, is that the way to draw trendlines and cnannels? Here's the Dow and R2K.

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

Absolutely. At the same time, the markets move in cycles - boom, bust, rinse, repeat - and will continue to do so. By most measures things are out of balance. This will correct itself at some point. When that will happen is, as you say, pointless to ...

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

Weekend puzzle After Friday's push higher, the Russell 2000 has reached a P/E ratio of 115.45, while the dividend yield is 1.33%. One third of the companies comprising the index reported no profit last quarter. Earnings season starts next week. Are ...

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

S&P 500 vs earnings The chart below ends in June. Since then the S&P has continued 150 points upwards. Go figure.

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

After a record week, here's some excellent discussion with very competent people about the market situation: video

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow