I've just discovered this thread. Many thanks, Skunny, for sharing. I'm going to try to summarize my understanding of what Skunny is teaching here. Skunny and others, please feel welcome to correct me. Hopefully the corrections will help clarify the ...

Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

Entries, exits, expectancy, coin tossing — Hi all Some thought-provoking posts here, IMHO. Definitely agree with the point that expectancy is zero (ignoring costs), unless one has an edge. Question becomes, how does one define, and measure ...

Expectancy is always zero

Hi Arnold Sorry about the delay in replying. I just noticed your post now. The FFcal.EXE application must be zipped, otherwise it exceeds the maximum size allowed on an attachment here. However, if you PM or e-mail me with your e-mail address, I'll ...

FFcal - Plot News indicator

Hi Daytek Run the FFcal.EXE program and press F9. Are the missing news events showing here? (Press 'End' to go quickly to the bottom of the list). If YES: Ensure that the date range you have in the "Output only events between" setting (after you've ...

FFcal - Plot News indicator

If Hillary becomes Pres, does that make Bill the first lady, or the first man? And does Monica have a brother?

The Holy Grail - Found

John, many thanks..... very interesting. Looks like I should have paid more attention when I was in Bible class! I'm familiar with some of this material in relation to end-time prophecy, but never realized it had a bearing in the financial markets. ...

The Holy Grail - Found

I've been trying to give all of this some thought. I wish I understood more about the underlying forces that drive the market, then perhaps I'd have a chance of figuring out either JohnW's or Skunny's method. I should point out that what follows is ...

The Holy Grail - Found

Durga, thank you for replying to my post. ________________________________ Blueruby, thanks for this, and I too have experience the feeling of being pulled in all directions by conflicting pieces of advice. Congratulations on your recent progress, ...

The Holy Grail - Found

Thanks, Skunny — Hi Skunny This is very interesting – it appears that you've discovered something very similar to what JohnW has, and via a similar process. If I understand correctly, you are not talking about analysis using TA, but an ...

The Holy Grail - Found

Digimix, IMHO you are spot on. The key number is expectancy (or "profit factor", "PF"), which is the product of win rate and win size (or "return/risk", "RR"). Everything else being equal, setting our targets closer than our stoplosses will ...

The Holy Grail - Found

Thanks and congratulations — Thanks John, you've certainly got me thinking again. And at a point where I'd decided to throw it all away. All of the TA approaches I'd looked at weren't giving me the edge I felt I needed. Anyway, apparently ...

The Holy Grail - Found

A puzzle with very few pieces can't be that difficult to solve...... — Blueruby, I too would (well, almost) sell my soul to discover a method capable of maintaining a 97% win rate across 240 live trades. JohnW's post is easily THE most ...

The Holy Grail - Found

TC, I'm only guessing here, but I think what JohnW might be saying is that (if we assume that technicals are his only road map) there is a way (momentum?, velocity?, timing? inherent in the PA) of determining who (commercials, heavyweight ...

The Holy Grail - Found

OK, OK, I'd left the forum, but I couldn't resist a reply to this post…. — JohnW, my experiences (over about 6 years, in my case) parallel yours very closely. I've tested hundreds of failed technical systems, read dozens of books (including ...

The Holy Grail - Found

Bolt, the tables I posted assume that the trials are independent, i.e. that the result of a previous trial (win or loss) has no bearing on the trial(s) that follow. Hence the 16 possible outcomes (W-W-W-L, etc) are assumed to be equally likely. ...

How I Turned 1k To 100k In A Wk!!!

Betting systems and expectancy — Let's attempt to clarify further with a simple analogy. Suppose we have a "50-50 system", and we need 10 successive wins, increasing the bet size, to achieve the desired result (e.g. $10k to $1m). Then the ...

How I Turned 1k To 100k In A Wk!!!

Hi Buddhi IMHO yours is an excellent post. I'd like to highlight some of the points and comment further. "there should be an event horizon where the system either went bankrupt or took off to the moon and so there can be no summary statistical ...

How I Turned 1k To 100k In A Wk!!!

How to import a whole month's data from FF calendar — Normally news is imported into FFcal.EXE's Event History database, from the FF calendar, on a week by week basis. However, it's possible to import an entire month's history at a time, if ...

FFcal - Plot News indicator

Once again, it comes down to expectancy....... — Re turning 1k into 126k, the key is whether it can be repeated more than once, on average, per 126 attempts; if so, it is a positive expectancy system. The underlying method (timing of entries ...

How I Turned 1k To 100k In A Wk!!!

Good for you. Anyway, I was just responding to the original poster's request.

Other MTF trend except HAS and stocH??