That's a matter of time scales, no? And more aspects could be considered. But different perspectives noted and respected. In any case, it shall be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Considering the longer term view, yes, the downtrend that bottomed last October has been broken. Still, for an upside to happen, the bear flag would have to be triggered by a break of the trend line, and then fail. That would be the logical and ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Makes sense. 1.30 as the first test.

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Here's 1994, the year I started trading stocks, on its own and in context of the previous years. It is from this year that my bearish bias, tendency to cut winners short, and generally impatient outlook, stem from

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Thanks again for bringing this topic up. I've done some analysis and reflection, and here's a couple of interesting charts. The first is of the Black Monday 1987, and the second of the current situation in the British Pound after the rate hike. ...

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

According to this model the 1987 crash, and its target low, was entirely predictable. The same model says that 1.2840 is next for Sterling.

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

IG in Australia has their own IT operation, so I don't think checking with us in Europe will offer any clues. ProRealTime, as offered by IG in Australia, runs on a different sever than for European clients, which is a bit of an issue for people down ...

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

You're welcome Having done enough of such things in the past it was a kind of déjà vu to recall that filter, as it's several years ago that I looked at it. And I am grateful to you for bringing Hurst cycle analysis to my attention Having ...

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

If you are interested, "octic" refers to 8th degree polynomials, and the channel is based on octic polynomial regression. In public forums, you will find plenty of debate about polynomial regression being "repainting", i.e. the regression line as a ...

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

It's produced by the code I posted earlier. It is based on digital filtering techniques, i.e. the kind used, for example, to filter out high-frequency noise from signals. Such filters tend to lie in the middle of the price series, just like the ...

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Linear regression channels work well too. This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Here is the same with the octic filter channel for comparison. And reflecting on that chart, and the bull flags added to it, one can see how the channel cycle analysis neatly captures the structure of the trend.

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Just recalled that I had this code in ProRealTime. Here's a 15 minute chart of the S&P 500 from the middle of October with a 60 period centered MA (red) and a channel based on an octic filter (yellow). Should anybody be interested, here's the ...

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Why make such a statement about something you know nothing about?

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

That shows the width (in ATRs, I guess) but not how you arrived at those numbers.

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Yes, I understand that very. well as the centered MA captures cyclical moves well. But my question was referring to what you said about practical trading, when all MAs are shifted by 16.

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Works in what sense? What is the point of using centered MAs then? Why not just use non-shifted simple moving averages?

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Thank you for your answers Could we use DAX on 1 minute, please?

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles