Submitted Aug 26, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

The majors are more or less confined to recent ranges with broad measures of FX volatility muted. The risk rally is pausing today as the expectation that Chair Powell adopts a more cautious tone tomorrow due to the Delta variant runs its course. So, ...

Submitted Aug 25, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

We highlighted the crossover of the 50-day and 200-day SMA a few weeks ago which signalled lower prices were coming. NZD/CHF had just pushed through the topside of the long held descending channel, but this proved to be a false break. Prices fell ...

Submitted Aug 18, 2021|From monetamarkets.com|6 comments

AUD is arguably the premier risk currency and remains offered this week for a host of reasons. Worsening sentiment in China and Asia has contributed to a re-rating in the global growth outlook. A national lockdown, in a seemingly never-ending cycle ...

Submitted Aug 17, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

Tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting was always going to be a seminal risk event in many ways. Markets had fully priced in the first 25bp interest rate rise by a major central bank in the developed world since the start of the pandemic crisis. In fact, it was ...

Submitted Aug 16, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

We have a plethora of UK data this week, as is always the case in the middle part of the month. Jobs, inflation, and retail sales are released from tomorrow which will all help or hinder the BoE’s recent optimistic outlook. The furlough scheme still ...

Submitted Aug 13, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

A crossover occurs when a shorter time period simple moving average (ie a faster SMA) crosses a longer-period simple moving average (ie a slower SMA). This could signal that the trend is about to change soon. The most well-known crossovers are ...

Submitted Aug 12, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

The rejection of key levels in some of the majors points to more choppy trading in the dollar, albeit with a bullish tilt with the Fed in potential taper mode. But one of the more notable moves in these summer markets has been EUR/CHF falling to new ...

Submitted Aug 11, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

We get the release of second quarter UK GDP tomorrow. Although backward looking in nature and often deemed as “stale”, June data will give us an early indication of whether the spread of the Delta variant has held back the UK’s recovery. Consensus ...

Submitted Aug 10, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

After two back-to back bumper NFP reports, it’s the turn of the other part of the Fed’s mandate – inflation – to occupy our minds next. Will the July US CPI data be cresting and show signs of easing? Or are inflationary pressures more persistent and ...

Submitted Aug 9, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

AUD has been driven in the last few weeks by falling iron ore prices and the spread of the Delta variant in Asia seeing a growing number of lockdown cities in China. That country is now also no longer the global driver of demand for commodities but ...

Submitted Aug 6, 2021|From monetamarkets.com|4 comments

The first Friday of the month means the release of the all-important US non-farm payrolls report. Bloomberg consensus for the headline number now sits at 858k from 925k at the start of the week. This is essentially due to the shocking ADP report, ...

Submitted Aug 5, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

Since topping out in late February just below the key psychological 1.00 level, AUD/CAD fell in a bearish channel. The pair then tracked sideways in a range between 0.9260 and 0.9380, more or less, since mid-May until late July, held up by a ...

Submitted Aug 3, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

With the Tokyo Olympics coming to end this week, we have not seen any major virus-related issues. Instead, the performance of the Japanese yen has recently been driven by the Chinese regulatory clampdown and record low real rates in the US. ...

Submitted Jul 29, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

A mixed bag of data has just been released across the pond, but the dollar selling has continued today after the FOMC tip-toed around taper talk. Hawks are talking up Jackson Hole and more detail while more cautious watchers still believe the ...

Submitted Jul 27, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

The swissie’s safe haven status has seen it top the list of major currencies this month. During this time, EUR/CHF suffered its biggest sell-off in over three years a few weeks ago and the pair has been trapped in bearish consolidation for most of ...

Submitted Jul 26, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

We highlighted AUD/NZD the week before last and how it was pulling back from a breakdown. Hot Kiwi inflation figures had just been released and it’s the turn of its antipodean brother this week. Wednesday’s data sees analysts forecasting headline ...

Submitted Jul 23, 2021|From monetamarkets.com|3 comments

The ECB’s much-hyped summer rendez-vous has passed with the Governing Council changing its forward guidance due to the new strategy. The bank is becoming even more dovish with interest rates remaining low for even longer as the bar to hiking rates ...

Submitted Jul 22, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

The improved risk tone through this week has seen JPY give back some ground, though it is still vying with CHF as the best performing major this month. Was the swoon in risk markets merely a blip or something more concerning as the Delta variant ...

Submitted Jul 21, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

Monday’s risk rout saw the commodity currencies get pummelled earlier this week, but they are endeavouring to claw back their losses. The Aussie has been the worst hit major, falling on the week and also on the month and is lagging the other ...

Submitted Jul 15, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

Solid UK job numbers briefly sent the pound higher this morning. Unemployment claims fell in June while wages were up strongly in May with the 7.3% gain outperforming the prior print of 5.7% and beating consensus of 7.1%. Although unemployment ...