Gnat, well done , I totally agree that profit factor is the most effective way to measure system performance (as opposed to other methods that count the net number of pips). Profit factor measures expectancy, the amount of return against ...

Braydensgrail System : )

Pipmaster, I am likewise baffled, even more so since nobody else has reported a similar error. I don't believe that changing your computer's date would fix the problem, though, because that will not alter the fact that it can't find the download ...

FFcal - Plot News indicator

Latest XLS — OK, Tom, the latest XLS is attached. Just for fun, I've allowed up to 8 trades this time. You can specify less than 8 if you want to (cell Q6), it simply trades zero size positions thereafter. The precent bet size in columns U ...

Odds staked against us?

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Odds staked against us?

Melpheos, thanks for the feedback. I likewise believe that ultimately it's only by timing entries and exits accurately enough to overcome costs, on balance, that one can win at trading. It goes without saying that if one doesn't have the discipline ...

Odds staked against us?

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Odds staked against us?

Thank you, Mr Wyckoff, for taking the time to post in the FF forum. url David

Odds staked against us?

Here we go again........ ___________________________________________________ Anyway........ Here's another XLS that allows you to experiment with even more types of betting system, again over 6 trades. The result remains the same: MM can't ...

Odds staked against us?

OK, here is the XLS.......... — Attached is the promised XLS, which I believe further confirms that MM in itself can not improve overall expectancy. The final P/L (expectancy across all possible permutations) is the value in cell W11, and ...

Odds staked against us?

Let's test your theory..... — OK, I will test this. I'll create an XLS that plots equity over 6 trades (since there are only 2^6 = 64 possible permutations of wins and losses over 6 trades, that's manageable enough), and see if the average ...

Odds staked against us?

Positives of FFS — OK, let’s look at the positives of FFS, as against betting a fixed dollar amount (FDA). Let’s assume we have a bankroll of $100, and a 10% ($10) bet size. Using FDA, if our first 10 trades are losses, we are bankrupt. If our ...

Odds staked against us?

Nice post , this is an excellent point that is often overlooked. It's the penalty that a trader must pay for attempting to compound his equity using fixed fractional sizing (FFS). Some considerations: With FFS, the order of the wins and ...

Odds staked against us?

Cash4u2, it depends what you mean by "constantly". I started trading in 2001, and moved to Forex mid-2006. I'm not consistently profitable yet, but I'm finally starting to see how it is possible. IMHO prices move randomly most of the time, ...

Is there really a strategy to profit constantly?

That's not a rant, Magnum, it's a post that makes many excellent points. IMHO. David

Is there really a strategy to profit constantly?

Every EA (trading robot) trades according to strict money management rules, and with perfect discipline. If profitable trading was as simple as "enter any emerging move, let profits run, cut losses short, risk only 1%-2% of your capital per trade, ...

Is there really a strategy to profit constantly?

Did you try changing the date to 6/07/2008 like I suggested? I recall somebody reporting a strange error several months ago (can't remember if it was "File not found", however), and adjusting the date by one day somehow fixed the problem. What "File ...

FFcal - Plot News indicator

Pipmaster, this is very strange. The problem is the "File not found" error. The "program has encountered a problem" message is what I would expect to happen, after you click ABORT. When I run this here with almost the same parameters, the error ...

FFcal - Plot News indicator

Good luck, Tom, I hope it takes off like the Concorde David

Monte Carlo w/ your money management

Hopefully I did understand, albeit at the second attempt (hence the addendum to my original post). Not quite sure what I'm missing........?? Also: What is your profit factor? How many trades in your sample size? What is the win rate? David

Monte Carlo w/ your money management

Great topic, very worthy of discussion....... — Great topic, very worthy of discussion, IMHO. Many thanks for sharing. I agree that position size has a huge effect on bottom line. However, look at the equity curves in the early posts, and ...

Monte Carlo w/ your money management