Submitted Dec 15, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

Will the December dot plots see similar moves to the more hawkish changes that were made after the June and September ones at tonight’s FOMC meeting? Consensus fully expect the Fed to move into the next tightening phase which currently means two ...

Submitted Dec 9, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

AUD/JPY has historically been known as something of an FX “bellwether” in judging the overall risk mood. The high yielding, risk sensitive aussie is paired with the classic safe haven currency which investors flock to in times of stress. That said, ...

Submitted Dec 7, 2021|From monetamarkets.com|2 comments

The Bank of Canada becomes the second major central bank to meet amid the rapid spread of the Omicron variant. Policymakers are appearing to have different takes on the impact on economies. The upbeat messages from the Fed and earlier today, the RBA ...

Submitted Dec 2, 2021|From monetamarkets.com|3 comments

Sterling is the strongest major currency today but has been a little forgotten among all the recent volatility. That may be because it sits between safe haven currencies like JPY and CHF, and higher-yielding, more risk-on ones like AUD and NZD. UK ...

Submitted Dec 1, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

CAD losses have been seen this week chiefly due to declines in crude oil prices. These have steadied overnight but both Brent and WTI still trade below their 200-day SMAs. Tomorrow’s widely watched OPEC+ meeting takes place amid huge uncertainty ...

Submitted Nov 29, 2021|From monetamarkets.com|1 comment

It’s obviously unwise to be putting a lot of risk to work in the current environment. We are back to being amateur epidemiologists, or more likely watching and listening to the wires for any concrete clarity about Omicron. Risky assets are ...

Submitted Nov 26, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

Safe havens are soaring and risk assets tanking on Black Friday. It’s an early close in the US for major markets so volumes are less than normal as traders take an extended Thanksgiving break. This will potentially exacerbate price action. Any new ...

Submitted Nov 25, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

With oil prices stabilising, CAD has enjoyed a better week. The Bank of Canada’s relatively hawkish outlook also bodes well for more gains further out. Employment is back to pre-pandemic levels and punchy inflation could see the BoC hike rates as ...

Submitted Nov 24, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

The dollar is powering higher this morning, especially against low yielding currencies like JPY and CHF. We get a deluge of US data today ahead of the holiday. This includes the weekly initial job claims, durable goods data and more inflation ...

Submitted Nov 22, 2021|From monetamarkets.com|9 comments

European lockdowns are hitting confidence in the region and its currency. Austria is good indicator for where potentially the rest of the zone is heading. That looks like increasing numbers of Covid cases and more social restrictions. Economic ...

Submitted Nov 18, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

A key driver of the loonie is the price of oil. This is under pressure today on reports that the US has asked China, India and Japan to dip into their fuel reserves. Both WTI and Brent crude have dropped below their 50-day moving averages to their ...

Submitted Nov 17, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

Surging UK inflation data this morning, coupled with a strong jobs report yesterday has sealed the deal for a rate rise by the Bank of England next month. We do get one more labour market update before that MPC rendez vous. But resilience in this ...

Submitted Nov 11, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

FX volatility had been fairly subdued recently after last week’s central bank meetings. But all that changed yesterday. The multi-decade high CPI data offered more ground to Fed hawks. It also reinforced the big differences in the US and eurozone ...

Submitted Nov 9, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

After falling since May from a high at 156.07, this pair has struggled to break down decisively through a strong area of support around 148. Sellers tried to push prices lower several times with lows at 148.45/52. Trendline resistance from the May ...

Submitted Nov 3, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

After months of “will they / won’t they”, the Fed will finally announce the start of tapering at today’s meeting. A reduction of $15bn per month with net buying ending by the middle of next year is discounted. The focus will be on the inflation ...

Submitted Nov 1, 2021|From monetamarkets.com|1 comment

Since poking above long-term trendline resistance from May 2019 above 0.93 in late September, sellers have been in the ascendancy. The July peak at 0.9274 also looks to have capped the upside. From here, prices broke the near-term down trendline at ...

Submitted Oct 29, 2021|From monetamarkets.com|6 comments

We had a eurozone data dump earlier today with Q3 GDP expanding in line with expectations (+2.25 y/y). The flash CPI estimate surged more than expected in October with inflation above 4% and the core reading above 2%. But the market is more ...

Submitted Oct 28, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

The yen is at the bottom of the G10 currency pile this month. Hit by the broadly more positive risk tone, the dovish BoJ did nothing today to change the view that they are in any rush to tighten policy any time soon. In contrast, the ECB has at ...

Submitted Oct 27, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

Among a phalanx of central bank meetings this week, the ECB gather tomorrow with no policy changes forecast. Since the last meeting in September, global energy prices have surged, adding upside risks to the inflation outlook. At present, markets are ...

Submitted Oct 26, 2021|From monetamarkets.com

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to taper its weekly bond purchases from C$2bn to C$1bn at its first in-person meeting on Wednesday since the pandemic crisis began. The main focus will be on policy rate guidance and language around possible ...