there is a study by Georgetown university, regarding market micro structure. file

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

I do not personally see how we can get a feel for orders when the market is global and decentralized. What your broker or brokers for that matter quote is a small percentage of market share. Even at a large spec level, the premise continues to be ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

price movement is Random but the randomness creates some sort of order. It is impossible to predict what one corporation will do, when they will get paid and change for home currency. it is impossible to predict when and if a large or small spec ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

Bollinger Bands are incredibly useful most professional trading, investing, statistical models are centered around this concept. Bollinger DID NOT COME UP WITH THIS CONCEPT AT ALL. Standard deviations from a moving average plotted and calculated for ...

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

so now statistics hold no water? ok i will disagree with you now and continue studying my class on binomial distributions, discrete random variables and how to assign probability distributions, to then compute expected returns and Sigma of assets... ...

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

I get my target from statistical studies average RoR's and volatility readings image image image targets HAVE TO be realistic

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

again unless i am mistaken if that is the case please correct me. in order to meet the target of >$50 dollars when you INDEED have the direction right. You need to increase your position in the market to actually meet that target. otherwise when you ...

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

either I am sleepy cant understand you well enough or I am not being clear. 100 winners at $50 dollars is + $5000 100 losers at $60= -$1000 over 200 trades you are down 1000 to be net positive your loser should lose <5000 in 100 trades unless i am ...

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

exactly... YOUR THRESHOLD needs to be well defined and if you are averaging down to accommodate for error. YOU MUST average up to maximize profit as well. and you MUST maintain positive expectation. at least as i currently see it... and under the ...

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

I have since changed my views Kno most of the things i say are true but the money management makes no sense that way. i am now somewhere where Rigidity of fixed s/l and t/p have to do not with arbitrary numbers but with current and statistical ...

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

every time you average down you 1) increase position size 2) you bring your average market price 50 lower due to increase exposure your s/l comes closer to market as well your average losers increase in relation to your average winners. thus giving ...

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

so how do you deal with exponential risk exposure with averaging down?

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

no the US is not the good guy is not what i said. but if you think about the Triffin Dilemma no matter who the holder of the reserve currency is , the problem still exists. how do you provide global liquidity without a world central bank... by ...

Why is the Euro so strong?

The USD will always have the Triffin dilemma as long as it is the Reserve currency, so having a current account deficit is conductive to GLOBAL growth, as it provides GLOBAL liquidity. running a current account surplus dries up global liquidity but ...

Why is the Euro so strong?

averaging down really DOES NOT WORK, tried it, tested it, even built a random model. the market is mostly random 60% of the time (empirical study by an ivy league the exact reference escapes me) that is why we need to treat the risk management as ...

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

surely you cannot be serious all in on intel? ever heard of tangency porfolio or efficient portfolio frontier? although the beta, p/e and EPS as well as technically it looks attractive you do not want to go all in you have to remember it is still a ...

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

actually I do not have empirical mathematically proven model but my personal observations are that... The currency market is the FATHER of all markets and tends to move with less volatility. It only seems more volatile to us do to leverage but the ...

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actually estimating or having an idea of macro economics and understanding as EmeraldEyes stated the players that have some skin in the game the CB's then the Interbank, then the Institutions including investment and corps, and Large specs is a ...

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I think we are all here working on a common goal some of us get lucky streaks I have opened threads stating ideas more like talking to myself they say teaching is the best way to learn, so concepts that i understand i pass on, for the selfish ...

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

Let me try to reverse engineer that to the best of my ability with the little information that I know. No price action involved in trading, at least to my limited knowledge can be in the following way. treat each candle as an option contract ...

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