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ell3 replied Nov 11, 2016i think we're talking about different pairs...the A/u didn't recover much. I still have a hunch that this thing may not really be a sell, and that it's going to end up being a bear trap. the way it's going down, is all too reminiscent of "don't ...
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 10, 2016Id quite like to do it too, but this one really looks dodgy. I'll probably wait for some confirmation that the drop is over before going in Long, otherwise right now it still looks like just a minor retracement of the day's move which appears to be ...
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 10, 2016The markets are really dangerous at the moment. A lot of puzzling moves going on, many of them without the usual correlations. AUD has fallen 170pips in a straight line to 7580. Why? if it's risk off,shouldn't the USD/JPY be falling? If it's usd, ...
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 10, 2016still not clear. i went short earlier from 7720, but it zoomed higher to 7730 initially. when it came down to 7705 i took the chance to get out. when it next hit 7740, i didn't enter because it looked as if it was going higher (to close the gap to ...
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 10, 2016Ok, they accepted blame for the issue and refunded the loss. Which is fair and correct in my circumstances. Meanwhile, hmm..... AUD on the climb AGAIN?! This is now really tricky. Think it's time to stay away from this pair for awhile. Been finding ...
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 9, 2016btw, does anyone else here trade with CMC Markets? they were down for around 20 minutes earlier. i discovered the problem while i was trying to close a long scalp on the E/U at breakeven that i could see wasn't going to work out. i couldn't close ...
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 9, 2016well, i use a combination of technicals and fundamentals. wave analysis may work but it isn't for me anyway, a little too speculative and inconclusive for me to have any confidence i feel.
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 9, 2016To each his own, my Friend. What works for you may not necessarily work for others.
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 9, 2016Classic sell the rumour buy the fact today. Happened so fast I didn't even have a chance to get in. The risk now is to the upside, I feel. If the USD sells off again, I doubt it will happen in a risk-off environment so there's nothing weighing on it.
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 8, 2016I think because if anything at all, the AUD is more vulnerable than the nzd. Strong links between AUD and china, and with all that trump rhetoric Yiu can bet the implications are negative AUD. Perhaps the AUD is also being sold a little by habit in ...
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 8, 2016Very simple, risk off. Selling risk currencies, buying safe haven. That means amongst the majors, AUD NZD CAD sold. JPY bought. Currencies not so closely linked to risk will rise versus the usd as the usd sells off. Meanwhile the aud is looking like ...
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 7, 2016Not true, AUD has remained underpinned mostly because of higher interest rates. Now that a December rate hike will most likely be coming from the fed, it may likely drop....which is why sellers are so happy to load in whenever it hits the 77c range.
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 7, 2016Really don't know how to read this pair for now. If trump wins, USD sells of but it's bad for risk...so what does AUD do? If Hilary wins, USD rallies and risk assets get a boost...so? Meanwhile the 7700-7750 area still finds plenty of sellers. Maybe ...
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 7, 2016So, let me open the discussion. Good time to discuss the fundamentals behind the pair again because I think that's what will lead the pair'a next direction. fed rate hike in Dec? Post-election risk rally? USD buying post-election?
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 4, 2016looking at the momentum of the pair, the best trade i picked today was to buy when it fell to the 100hma at 7652. almost instant 20pips in the bag. clearly the selling from the top has become a lot milder, whereas the buying from the bottom has ...
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 3, 2016shared view
absolutely right about the multiple failures above 77c. but equally right about the congestion building up at the upper 76c. in my opinion, the market doesn't know where to go now. the rational direction should be up, because of ...AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 3, 2016probing at the topside trendline @ 7683 again. this time it may well break above, because unlike at previous attempts when the AU was at this level, the EU and UJ were all also at extremes. Now, however, the EU is still at the middle of the day's ...
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 2, 2016well, if anything, it looked like a typical risk-off reaction. the "sell first, think later" type. could also be stops tripping on the AUD/JPY cos the JPY was moving first. the AUD buying coupled with USD selling momentum has been strong and i don't ...
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 2, 2016i noted the trend line too, but the speed of the fall is suspicious. i've got the entire move in one M5 candle. if it steadies, may consider "speculating" a small buy position back to 7670.
AUD/USD
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ell3 replied Nov 1, 2016agreed. i was thinking to buy at the 100hma @ 7612 but i missed it while stepping away from my desk. the rebound was a quick 20pips. the battle may really be narrowing. i think the perfect FOMC scenario will be for them not to raise rates, but to ...
AUD/USD