and now Japan is running out of money in a political game. Kind of deja vu in US.

EUR/CHF

maybe we have slovenia's exit before grexit. regarding inflation in Switzerland: the salary increase requested by travail suisse is only 1% to 2%, so I admit that this will work against any possible inflation.

EUR/CHF

Giving the economical data of Switzerland, I wonder why they implement a 0% interest and Beggar-thy-neighbour peg policy. Unemployment 3% Trade balance 2.92B (expected 2.10B !) UBS bubble index: close to red, SNB is worried since many months, ...

EUR/CHF

Inflation in Germany increases due to fuel prices url Let's see for Switzerland.

EUR/CHF

It's perfectly clear that Jordan can't discuss any exit options. It's also clear that SNB already incurred big losses, since there is no buyer for their EUR at a rate of 1.20. Exchanging EUR against USD is reasonable to reduce losses in the short ...

EUR/CHF

From 280,59 to 286,38 it´s rather 5,79 than 5.4 ? Were the low amounts of the past weeks only due to holiday season?

EUR/CHF

So just before GDP q/q on 04.09. and CPI m/m on 05.09.

EUR/CHF

I have to admit that - if the trend continues with EUR/USD going up although QE3 is more or less off the table - and SNB interventions going down, - and >160billions that could also be withdrawn I'm now a bit more nervous that EUR/CHF might go up. ...

EUR/CHF

Because 1) either EZ recovers and SNB interventions go down anyway (no need for safe haven) 2) or EZ gets deeper into trouble, then the peg for EUR/CHF falls which is then closer to market expectations, thereby attracting less speculation against ...

EUR/CHF

Credibility is important, but May-July forex reserves proved that people will call your bluff if the economic situation does not justify SNB's action. I'm not advertising going down to 1,1 and then pull back to 1,3. But they might feel more ...

EUR/CHF

The last 6 m/m inflation rates were -0,48% -0,28% -0,02% 0,07% 0,56% 0,28% So you calculate (0,9952*...*1,0028) and get 0,13% for the last 6 month. Extrapolated for a year you then have 0,26%.

EUR/CHF

Pegging against a basket would be one solution reducing risks from EZ crisis. Investment of 20BLN a week would be a very good investment if then EUR/CHF moves up.

EUR/CHF

And now 1.20 is way too high. Without pegging it would be below parity (e.g. UBS statement, or assume that CHF/USD would not have fallen since pegging). PPP is misleading because it does not include risks such as Euro crisis. For 6 month inflation ...

EUR/CHF

SNB gave up their last unofficial peg in June 2010 when inflation was going down from 1.40% peak to 0,49%. So SNB will not wait for inflation of >2%. And in the last 6 months (i.e. Feb-now) inflation became slightly positive in Switzerland. So the ...

EUR/CHF

I confirm that you're wrong, see url I agree that a bursting bubble has deflationary effect. But we haven't reached this stage yet.

EUR/CHF

Who's afraid ?? — Money at risk: Home loans have increased by almost 300 billion CHF in a decade and gained 5.2 percent last year to 797.8 billion francs. That’s about 140 percent of Swiss gross domestic product. Recent interventions in the ...

EUR/CHF

Capital control/negative rates — Because in case of Grexit they can't react as quickly as investors.

EUR/CHF

Straddle — Maybe they use it as a straddle position: either EZ collapses and CHF is unpegged, or EZ comes back to normal and CHF and EUR both rise against USD.

EUR/CHF

But this only works if EUR/CHF pegging fails otherwise CHF is on the same sinking ship!

EUR/CHF

Capital flight — Some investors (I presume hedge fonds) bought 160billion CHF in the last 3 months. They would be rather upset to see any decrease of CHF, wouldn't they? Are they all stupid to enter a game that they can't win if SNB defends ...

EUR/CHF