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TimmyBTrades commented Oct 22, 2025Crude is going crazy, maybe they will finally go after the shadow fleet
US Treasury Sec Bessent: Everything is on the table in talks with China
- TimmyBTrades replied Oct 16, 2025
Question: How do we reconcile strong GDP growth and resilient retail sales with a weakening jobs market? Waller Answer: Jobs market is being impacted by uncertainty more than a restrictive monetary environment. NFP prints remain positive, but JOLTS ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades commented Oct 2, 2025
*BOJ Governor Ueda Signals Further Rate Hikes if Outlook Holds Lol only the 500th time we have heard that one, the hike is always one meeting away
Ueda: Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy
- TimmyBTrades commented Sep 25, 2025
GDP data was revised by the BEA to a higher level than previously reported by the BEA. Where do the journos fit into this scheme?
Revisions Unveil a More Resilient US Economy than First Reported
- TimmyBTrades replied Sep 15, 2025
FOMC meeting outlook: SEP- PCE Inflation- remains largely the same, 3.0% neighborhood for 2025. Uptick to 2.5/2.6%ish for 2026, stays at 2.1% for 2027. Change in real GDP- return to March projection levels, 1.7-1.9% for 2025-2027 Unemployment rate- ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades replied Sep 9, 2025
Benchmark revision played out mostly as expected, equity market was able to shrug off revision of -911k. Holding position heading in to PPI and CPI. I would not expect another 0.9% reading for PPI or Core PPI, but risk skews to the upside of market ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades commented Sep 9, 2025
*It would also include money projected to be collected from the at-risk tariffs by next June. Unbelievably inflated number. SC ruling tariffs as illegal would only prolong the uncertainty, admin has made clear they will try every avenue to make them ...
Potential Trump tariff refund bill could top $1 trillion as Supreme Court fight looms
- TimmyBTrades replied Sep 8, 2025
BLS benchmark revision due out tomorrow, and looks like the market is centering around a -700k revision to the prior year's job numbers. Worth noting that the spread on estimates is very wide though, so we could see some significant difference from ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades replied Sep 5, 2025
I should have listened to Trump. It looks like the BLS may have corrected their overestimates for non-respondents. Relevant here because the model is using the un-revised NFP prints to map vs the ADP components. Next month I think I will try using ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades replied Sep 4, 2025
09/04/2025 TimmyCast NFP Projection: +99.2k +/- 50k Hopefully closer this time, above forecast of 75k 4cQasc1wVUammFCgQrdPn4rWqD8e5Qqp15TeTSChs9hoa2mJaBhpY9xSzD4RWEjDVhkQ5F9WB3ngi5r8rWbQnKqn Implied v Kalshi P(NFP > 0k): 94.8% v 98% P(NFP > 50k): ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades replied Sep 4, 2025
08/01/2025 TimmyCast NFP Projection: +168k +/- 50k Made some tweaks, well off consensus, Kalshi 150k+ @ $0.15 placed 5SjFkukQoF3nJAVaJQCpDdeB8WGAw24b9PmLD4jBKcc1mcUqBiYQBnM8fRPmNUK4hcx5HCbq6HMPcPcVE1YXugRy Actual: 73k With additional complaint: “ ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades replied Sep 4, 2025
07/03/2025 TimmyCast NFP Projection: +81k +/- 40k 5hDw5Z1NbZLTgerGNoWjqy6q9FoebMJYEXp7YJy77PBqK2X8fBZhvGCr8x2NDbACH4zprcHr213hUBN2X2DR6UAc Didn't use hash on sol memo this time. If I'm way off blame ADP, original runs ~70k so re-weighted. Actual: ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades replied Sep 4, 2025
06/06/2025 TimmyCast NFP Projection (prev base + adj for ADP, ISM man/nonman employment, JOLT open/hire/sep, Unem claims 4 wk ma, misc): +135k +/- 50k In line print = $ up as cuts get pushed out Bad rev could turn print soft +EV Kalshi vs model ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
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NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
Started Sep 4, 2025|Trading Journals|17 replies
Running out of room on the shout section of my profile. Projections + SolScan proof of ...
- TimmyBTrades commented Sep 1, 2025
Nature is healing- random BOJ statements rocking USDJPY out of the blue
BOJ’s Himino: Appropriate to Keep Raising Rates in Line with Economic, Price Trends
- TimmyBTrades commented Aug 28, 2025
Fed Govs have referenced an expectation for lower total NFP numbers, both the supply and demand of labor falling so lower job adds but stable labor market. That said, Fed can slice off 25 bps without fear of real inflationary impact, so I reckon ...
US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
- TimmyBTrades commented Aug 25, 2025
If Trump sticks to his guns on this I don't see how the EU deal can stay intact. Meaningless concessions make sense, but no way the EU can cave on digital regulation. Time to de-price tariff resolution.
Trump vows ‘substantial’ new tariffs, chip restrictions on countries with digital taxes
- TimmyBTrades commented Aug 19, 2025
I guess I was mistaken, if the President says there is no inflation, then there is no inflation
Trump: There is no inflation, every sign is pointing to a major rate cut. “Too Late” Powell is...
- TimmyBTrades commented Aug 12, 2025
Well it was nice while it lasted I will tell my children about the days the US had reliable economic data
EJ Antoni suggests suspending monthly jobs report - Fox Business