If this is true then just like CJ, GEFX and many others are claiming...we would see patterns, and I agree with you except when you start stating that these "special patterns" are outside of the purview of objective analysis. Somehow only our brains ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

True, it means there is insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis, however I agree with Atokys he also stated something like

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

pardon my ignorance but, I am not sure what tests you ran here. are you separating white noise from trend and running an serial correlation test? seems like you decomposed the data .... but I am not sure

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

Thanks a lot I will definitely read up on Portmanteu tests and the rationale behind it as well as entropy measurements... Perhaps I am a bit cynical and it is a matter of applying the wrong tool to the wrong problem.... but I do not want to go down ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

AUD/JPY? I was distracted by the blond with the bulls eye......Very interesting target *edit** can I post it here and discuss or is it for my eyes only? it looks like you are reversing the bullish impulse wave on the left side to project a bearish ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

This was the SNB sterilized intervention where they put a floor on the euro right? .... just like I profited on the JPY intervention as the BOJ stated usd/jpy at 70 was hurting exports and they would intervene to ease pressure. at the time the ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

if I am using corrupt or false data then ... my analysis would be invalid... do you know something I dont know? Is FRED data corrupt? I am actually interested in your market predictions... please show me a pattern that you believe it is successful ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

My trading philosophy is very similar to yours actually... but I chose to make this assumptions that white noise with drift is the normal conditions with systemic shocks causing deviations from intrinsic value that in turn creates opportunity for ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

Hi Friend, I think I was not very clear with what I mean by random. An infinite random sequence is ∞-distributed, in which any possible finite sub-sequence of numbers is uniformly distributed. I did not mean that Minute, hourly, daily, monthly log ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

I think you are Jumping the gun on this one, you have assumed the market has persistence.... trend, how do you know that? here is where the Hurst exponent, I though would be useful to actually test this hypothesis, However from a sample size of 4227 ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

Correct me if I am mis-interpreting your argument, it seems to me you are in agreement with my claim. Technical Analysis alone and by that I mean any type of historical price data plotted in a chart along with any other derivative there of, does not ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

Can you tell the difference between Monte Carlo simulated data and the real market data? image

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM = attributed to Hannibal when crossing the Alps " Either I Will find a way or I'll Make one"

I need your Signature quote here

You and I have differing opinion on the market... the claim you are making is that the market is predictable, especially candle stick patterns. I went down this rabbit hole before, and let me tell you ... to all the trader's here that claim that ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

I am assuming you live in the US given that your wife is under hospice service. I do wish you fortitude and acceptance, no one really knows how long she will be here with you; however long that is enjoy her, make her and yourself as happy as ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

here is where you lose all credibility.

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

what do you mean? how can you "Follow" Price? if the eur/usd is down do you sell? if so you are still predicting that price will continue to decrease. Unless you are making money of commission or arbitrage you are always predicting.

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

your description on how candles are made is spot on but then you go into woo woo territory, what appears more likely to me is the following: once you convert eurusd logarithmic returns of the one minute chart (pick your time frame here which works ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

I fail to see how Banks care about traders, when "tricking" people... we are talking about a country's currency here right? the Trillions of Dollars that are transacted, in may different ways. I also fail to see spot fx as a purely speculative asset ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?