- Search Crypto Craft
-
ntrpy commented Sep 22, 2025Make of this what you will.
Fed's Bostic sees little reason to cut rates further for now -- WSJ
- ntrpy commented Sep 18, 2025
US Unemployment Claims Aftermath
US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
- ntrpy commented Sep 17, 2025
FOMC Statement Summary ○ Fed cut rates by 25bps to range of 4.00 - 4.25%, as expected. ○ One dissent from Stephen Miran, voted for 50bps cut; major dovish surprise ○ Signals immediate split within committee towards more aggressive easing. ○ Median ...
Powell: No widespread support for 50 bps cut today; No need to move quickly, waiting was right...
- ntrpy commented Sep 17, 2025
FOMC Statement Summary ○ Fed cut rates by 25bps to range of 4.00 - 4.25%, as expected. ○ One dissent from Stephen Miran, voted for 50bps cut; major dovish surprise ○ Signals immediate split within committee towards more aggressive easing. ○ Median ...
FOMC Summary of Economic Projections
- ntrpy commented Sep 17, 2025
Agreed, I'm leaning slightly to a surprise.
Rates Spark: A dovish 25bp or a hawkish 50bp rate cut
- ntrpy commented Sep 17, 2025
UK CPI Print - Data came in exactly as preview anticipated - Headline CPI y/y was 3.8%, unchanged from July and in-line with forecasts - Crucial detail, Core CPI y/y, which slowed to 3.6% from 3.8% previously - Dovish print for BoE; slowing in the ...
UK Inflation again poses a warning to the Bank of England
- ntrpy commented Sep 17, 2025
A 50bps cut is more bearish than a 25bps cut. It will signal that the Fed thinks the economy is in an even weaker state than thought. Yields will fall, other currencies will rally vs the dollar. A hawkish dot plot @ 25bps on the other hand, may be ...
Rates Spark: A dovish 25bp or a hawkish 50bp rate cut
- ntrpy commented Sep 16, 2025
Why did the dollar rally fade so after after this hotter-than-expected print? Soft data (UoM survey) was the true signal: - Surge in e-commerce likely a sign of consumer fragility, not strength, being enabled by credit facilities. - Deepens bearish ...
US spending comes in stronger, but challenges remain
- ntrpy commented Sep 16, 2025
Pahahahaha, you should start doing these for every news print. In all seriousness though, I'm only (currently) bearish about rate differentials, and potentially more realistic about economic cycles - otherwise I'm a pretty optimistic guy!
US retail sales up 0.6% in August from July even as tariffs hurt jobs and lead to price hikes
- ntrpy commented Sep 16, 2025
Having thought about this a bit more, I have some further ideas & implications of this print: Soft data (UoM survey) was the true signal: - Surge in e-commerce likely a sign of consumer fragility, not strength, being enabled by credit facilities. - ...
US retail sales up 0.6% in August from July even as tariffs hurt jobs and lead to price hikes
- ntrpy commented Sep 16, 2025
PIMCO view is that the Fed's policy rate cuts are not transmitting effectively to the real economy, specifically the housing market. Mortgage spreads (the gap between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield) are historically wide. A 25bps rate ...
A Fed Housing Fix That’s Hiding in Plain Sight