Actually, it's not a trading method; it's just math that proves optimization; doesn't help your trade any if your expectancy < 1. And I agree with you about marketers and snakeoil salesman. When I started working with FX; I had (and you can even ...

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

As I have replied to a few people who have asked the question; When I first started FX, I just got married; I now have 2 beautiful daughters; I'm not getting any younger, and my time is now at a premium. I am not Andrew Wiles, and would actually ...

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

July 19th, 2009 — I had meant to post on the anniversary; but such is life. Looking back at my emails, July 19th, 2009 was when I formalized my mini-max proof; I had been working on it for 2 years, but it was on that day that I was able to ...

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

That was my thought as well; but thus far, nobody seems to have been able to reproduce my work; of if they did, they aren't posting it. It's been 4 years so I can give a hint; It contains phi.

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

@almo, I'm not sure I understand the question. If you have an equation that is correct; then when you plug in numbers and graph the results; you will see a mini-max (saddlepoint, in calculus vernacular) when you plot risk vs reward. Is that what you ...

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

I am currently mucking with the concept that for one pair; like EURUSD, I'd go with the tech-reproduction method, and all other pairs with Bid/Ask under 4 pips, I'd go biological. That way, I'd have one producing a small stream of income while the ...

Biology vs Technology

Not really.. bacteria I might believe but not viruses; viruses require a host to reproduce, bacteria does not. I try to take from every facet of my life and apply it to trading. Poker, Blackjack, video games, calculus, photography, you name it and I ...

Biology vs Technology

The Christians of old call it the "lighting a candle effect" and this is very very important concept. Basically, when I use a candle to light your candle, the fact that your candle is lit, does not diminish the light given off by my candle. What ...

Biology vs Technology

So the theory is, "in the future" there will be 2 groups, the "techs" vs the "bio's". You've got Terminator like machines that start a war blah blah blah and rebel against humans. The other part is probably injecting animals with different strains ...

Biology vs Technology

And 4 years later, people are still averaging down.. so obviously I'm a failure in what I preach.. BigV.. Fuzzy logic is awesome.. You can apply it to a bunch of irrelevant items in your life!! ;-) I'm not a great Blackjack player; but so far, my ...

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

Average down is for idiots who don't know math. Search "Martingale" in google. If you want to average down, just give me your money, it's faster that way.

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

I'm actually currently working on matrix analysis, and bias/equilibrium hacking. Basing my system off the MIT blackjack guys and their math.. very very interesting.. I however, forgot way too much of my stats and matrix math classes.. Should have ...

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

Hi Claus, Your conclusions are mathematically flawed. Let's say Alice, Bob, and Charlie are all long on the EURUSD. Let's say the positions are: Alice [email protected] Bob [email protected] Charlie [email protected] so who's making more money?? We don't know... Because: ...

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

Or you can just hack a rice cooker ;-)

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

NO. I am saying that I've now done the math (and really need to revise my book) basically showing that averaging up will almost reach expectancy of 1.00, but it won't... (and that's not including bid/ask). So that means I know that long term, I will ...

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

I am not sure as I'd have to double check the math; but just off the top of my head; my guess is going to be that "b" can't "runaway" from a too far; because you are (should be) limited by the fact that a > b or else you've violated ratio's of math ...

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

Did not take Random Entries.. Why take Random ones when you can take slightly more mathematically advantageous ones? No, I didn't take transaction costs into account; but I can tell you that bid/ask is usually what kills most expectancies and makes ...

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

Which part; and how much light?

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation

Yes. I've got 60+ gigs of data to backtest against. All major pairs from 2007 to today.

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation