Making progress — What creedence/concern for your entires and position building do you put on these "technicals"?....broken trend diagonal...yet seemingly firm level of support horizontally? Yes, I use trendlines, fibs on the long term and ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

No problem, learn and move on — No worries, not the first mistake and certainly not the last. I've also made my share of bonehead trades. The important thing is that you learn from this so you don't make the same mistake again. Next time, ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

CADJPY — It's much easier when you can see things in color! I think you jumped out of the CADJPY trade a bit early, but still you managed nearly 300 pips ..... not bad. The challenge you'll have going forward is hanging on to the winning ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Risk Managment — This really depends on the volatility of the currency pair and where I need to put my stops. If the stop is very close, then I'll risk a bit more, but if the stop is further away, I'll risk a bit less. My initial positions are ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

USDJPY and Risk Aversion — 1) Do you mind me askin at what prices are you starting to accumulate USD/JPY? I'm thinking of accumulating a soon. If it drops further tonight. I may opt to pick up a few small lots. Do you see USD/JPY dropping ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Money Supply Tightening — Yes, it all started with the hike in discount rate last week. Further tightening of the money supply will push the USD higher.

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Well done! — Well done Peter! You're picking things up very quickly! For the last part, I found it easier to think like this: 1. Global economy in risk appetite or risk aversion: a. If in risk aversion than invest in "safer" assets b. If in ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

The key components — What you're missing is the difference in deficits between the US and JP. Because the US is a consumption based economy, gov't debts are financed from other countries. Where as JP as an export country finances it debts ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Pullback? — What makes you think it's a pullback? I think this is a very risky trade. We've been talking about risk aversion in the medium term for several weeks.

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Clarification — The next leg of the bull run in what?...U.S equities?..commodities? The global economy, i.e. risk appetite, so it's basically every market that goes up during risk appetite. We get the "selling of JPY" in Carry trade "if/when" ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

USDJPY and USDCAD — Unfortunately you can't compare USDJPY and USDCAD, they're driven by different fundamentals. See my previous post, you missed the part about what what kind of market we are currently in the medium term and the kind of ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

CADUSD — I think you're missing a major portion of the picture. What you are looking at from Oct 2007 - March 2009 is the LONG TERM RISK AVERSION caused by the financial crisis. You forgot that we are in LONG TERM RISK APPETITE and medium term ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Welcome — Hi hohgch, Welcome to my little corner of FF. I think it's fantastic that you used to work as an equity trader. I'm sure there's a lot you can teach me. It's good to have my views confirmed by someone who's worked on the "other ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Teacher? Hmm..... — Hi myfx, Unfortunately I don't know enough about economic theory to teach at a college / university level. But I do know enough to form my opinions and anticipate how the big boys are thinking and this is more than enough ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Welcome — Hi traderdesk, Welcome to the thread. I can understand USDJPY, I'm doing the same. However I'm not sure that GBPJPY has hit bottom yet, so I'm not too keen to jump on that one. Having said that, in the future I will be looking to ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

DING! DING! DING! — BINGO! Well done, Silverheat! That's 2 in a row! Move to the head of the class! :nerd: Yes, this is exactly right. This is the only way you can know what the other large institutions are thinking. IMO, this is ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Not quite — Yes, you can call up colleagues working in other institutions, but remember that there are many of them around the world and you can't coordinate with all of them. As for "the trend is your friend", this applies only for small ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Thinking like the Big Boys, part 3 — Ok, so now that we have an understanding of how the big boys are operating, we need to look at the next problem. So again in this exercise, you work for a large institution. You are looking to put on a ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Oh, we're not done yet — You're welcome rac. But we're not done yet, now that we understand how the big boys are operating. We need to discuss how we can take advantage of this knowledge.

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Welcome — Hi Cheerful, Welcome to the thread. Please read the through the thread. I explained the "commodity" currency trades when I made this call several weeks ago.

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading