looks like a bunch of lines on a candle stick chart, i suppose attempting to predict market movement.

EURUSD

from what I have seen and read, the current financial crisis was as bad as it was because the tools to measure risk and the models that assumed diversification are wrong. I do not believe one can truly diversify, as a systemic shock will impact all ...

Thoughts on Diversification?

I hope you are using the Geometric average otherwise your results will be skewed.

Risk Reward: 1:1, 1:2 or 1:3

with all due respect I think you are not being realistic here. 1:3 risk reward or any R:R for that matter is specious. you CANNOT determine your R:R it is the market that determines the volatility and direction, it is all subject to change.... the ...

Risk Reward: 1:1, 1:2 or 1:3

I'll translate that to plain English if the math doesn't make sense to you 1 risk less or equal to 1% of account 2- of an average of 24 hours if you are intra day, of a month if you are a position or swing trader, standard deviations x 2 is the same ...

Risk Reward: 1:1, 1:2 or 1:3

here is my take on this when talking about money management.... that is the only side of trading that needs to be meticulously planned out and have a system for. the Analysis part is more of a flexible, educated guess sort of thing. three basic ...

Risk Reward: 1:1, 1:2 or 1:3

this sounds like an elaborate, tail chasing for sure. Hanover nails it.......Random, unknown, information, inference on more predominant move. no mathematical MODEL CAN EVER be predictive.

Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

exactly, you made my point for me.

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

then they are not RELIABLE.

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

We are always speculating regarding price that is why My posts state research regarding the randomness of price movement so we REALLY DON'T KNOW where the big players will be... We speculate. as humans we over estimate the order of the markets and ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

how about the fakies that are used as stated here by some member to fill large orders? that is why i asked for statistical proof, an idea that you observe is not always valid, what is your sample space? and are you having selective attention? can ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

I understand how to trade S/R and the rationale behind it. But do you have any evidence that the market actually follows this? any statistical objective study that states that 68% 80% or x% of the time when price reaches this S/R, S/D area it ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

can you rephrase your answer please. You quoted me but I do not understand your statement.

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

The idea is sound if you make 60 pips on average on your winning trades and 50 loss on average on your losing trades. then over a sample space of 1000 trades you would have (μ_w*1000) - ( μ_l*1000)= X_1 where μ_w is your winning trades μ_l is your ...

Help Me With This Doubt - Risk/Reward Strategies

You are doing wishful thinking there. you can't just decide how much reward you would like. I has to be according to what the market can give and for that you would need to understand volatility and statistical ranges, not only that but future ...

Help Me With This Doubt - Risk/Reward Strategies

there is three major things to look at for profitability 1)diversification 2)asset selection 3) market timing one must find the best in terms of skill and risk.

The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

according to Kahneman and traversky and professor Shiller from Yale University as well as personal experience and research I have made. this is why EMH breaks down and the markets become inefficient 1) Wishful thinking 2)Attention anomalities ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

maybe it was miss communication in my part, I stated this market inefficiency looks bullish for the Euro. perhaps I should have expanded, on the time horizon . short term there could possibly a bounce or not, it is a matter of awaiting loss of ...

EURUSD

past action is actually indicative of Future actions with the FED, have you read Bernanke's essays on the great depression. I agree with you that no one will go rushing to buy euros, especially with the debt market being as it is. but My point is ...

EURUSD

that is a reasonable logical statement. 0.2% MoM PCE Index so inflation expectations remain calm A strong dollar will begin to contract exports as well so the PMI was positive for April but this sort of re enforces my view that a strong dollar is ...

EURUSD