buckle up mtako! btw how can i post this train animation?

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sure but the chance of a rate change was zero, rate changes are expected for 2023 or earliest Q4 2022. this fomc is all about whether the fed gives hints for tapering, i.e. if they hint to scaling down asset purchases in a few month from now

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lol, dude...

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First down then up, so far so predictable. Let's see if this rise is sustainable. For me the statement looks dovish. Some acknoledgement of stronger labor market and better economic conditions, but that does not look as a preparation for tapering ...

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I am fully loaded with longs but still have space to buy some more if we should dump to 1.2050. In case the FED makes a direct reference to tapering I will close a good portion of my longs.

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Just sold the 10% extra I bought at 1.2065 at 1.2098, little optimization around my long, as we might still see 1.2050 during the FED.

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Probably 1.2084 will resist - would be happy if not though..

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Yes I think the same way - FOMC reaction is likely an initial fake move down followed by an up rallye. I also guestimate the initial move will reach 1.2050 region. As the FED will acknowledge the economic improvements this does already cause the ...

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yes thought the same - could take 10 hours until potential breakout though - will probably make or break it in the Asin session

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Guys never be too certain. We might well get a month end rallye from USD hedging, but after that a stronger rebound is definitely in the cards. And for the FOMC tomorrow there is some risk that the FED stresses the good economic development more ...

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90 stronghold is getting attacked now by late night bulls

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However, the monthly engulfing itself is not soo meaningful, check e.g. april 2015.

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Exactly man! I also wrote many times that I have 1.28 target. Seems reasonable to me.

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It closed at 76 so your setup is not in, right?

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You probably have to hold this to after FOMC though, oftentimes the market only trades in a range before

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Above 1.2070 the wedge is broken to the upside which probably triggers a move to closely below 1.21.

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That's right - but what I meant was that if you take into account the standard deviation of the forecasts, then the average forecast is the current level plus some insignificant noise. My take would be that these broker forecasts look like paths of ...

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Much more? The average of the consensus in the last row is pretty much equal to the current level.

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I think one of these various falling wedges below will materialize, so probably 1.2057-66 will hold firm, though the lowest version might go down to 1.2050. I expect the market trade in a range until FOMC results are announced tomorrow, probably ...

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so you are from brl? your picture is the coat of arms from another country though

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