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philmcgrew replied Oct 4, 2007Here's a crazy idea: Try looking at price itself. If you accept that an uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows and that a downtrend is a series of lower highs and lower lows then the trend would be over when that definition no longer ...
end of a trending market?
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philmcgrew replied Oct 4, 2007Nick, congratulations on figuring out what so many can not see. This realization will serve you well in your trading. Mr. Green's example was spot on. If you can resist the temptation to take a quick profit with a partial exit you will be rewarded.
Money Management Question
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philmcgrew replied Oct 3, 2007I would add verterans don't blame their broker or the internet for a bad trade verterans have their broker's phone number programmed in all their phones verterans don't care why the market moved or will move, only that their system will allow them ...
Soultrader's Clinic :)
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philmcgrew replied Oct 3, 2007I remember arguing with a stock broker friend about whether the Dow could break 2500. In that regard, $100 oil will sound like a silly arugement a couple years from now.
I see oil reaching 100 USD?!
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philmcgrew replied Oct 3, 2007You can find currency correlations at this website.
as a new trader.........
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philmcgrew replied Oct 3, 2007At least put the list back up! I've often thought about the common traits of a successful trader versus those who were still seeking success. I thought you summarized the differences quite well. My favorites have always been people who talk about ...
Soultrader's Clinic :)
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philmcgrew replied Oct 3, 2007I've been trading since 1985 which is longer than some people on this forum have been alive. The difference between us is that I don't flaunt my experience and I have data to back up what I say. And yes, I have a lot to learn, but I'm smart enough ...
Soultrader's Clinic :)
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philmcgrew replied Oct 3, 2007I actually agree that it shouldn't be a mindless 2% but most traders lack the ability and software to determine the exact amount to risk, and testing on a variety of systems has shown that the optimal value is around 2-4%. Many laymen expect it to ...
Soultrader's Clinic :)
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philmcgrew replied Oct 3, 2007Not really. As far as I understand the rules we all have the right if not an obligation to discuss these issues. By setting up a "clinic" where only you comment on a chosen few you have done a disservice to the idea of a forum. If you want a private ...
Soultrader's Clinic :)
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philmcgrew replied Oct 2, 2007I am not a fan of scaling out but do like to reduce risk. Can you explain how that would work as compared to a trade with no scaling?
Scaling: In/Out. Winning/Losing
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philmcgrew replied Oct 2, 2007I would paste in the definition of "strategy" but it's listed in one of those stupid authority type books that we call the dictionary. If you add to a position in a pre-planned sequence how can that be dismissed as not being part of a strategy?
Scaling: In/Out. Winning/Losing
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philmcgrew replied Oct 2, 2007CW, I think you offer good advice but the AUDUSD currently has a weekly correlation of 96 with the EURUSD (100 being perfect correlation) and the GBPUSD has an 86 which is also highly correlated (0 being no correlation and -100 being perfect inverse ...
as a new trader.........
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philmcgrew replied Oct 2, 2007Most backtesters already know that. A good measure of backtesting is a situation where your strategy walks forward at an annualized rate of 50% of the in-sample results. Anything significantly higher than that and I would be very skeptical. Anything ...
Automated Trading
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philmcgrew replied Oct 2, 2007Nader, I certainly agree with you that there is a move to gold and silver for many of the same reasons you stated. Those commodities are traditionally safe havens in times of uncertainty. I do question why someone would exchange USD for CL as a way ...
I see oil reaching 100 USD?!
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philmcgrew replied Oct 2, 2007People are buying oil because it's safer than the US Dollar? How many funds did you poll to come up with that idea? I thought commodities went up due to supply and demand all this time.
I see oil reaching 100 USD?!
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philmcgrew replied Oct 2, 2007I stated my point earlier that I felt automation didn't require intervention. Once the strategy goes on a pair it stays there. I don't have to worry about things like parity. Thinking is not automation and I don't know how one would backtest their ...
Automated Trading
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philmcgrew replied Oct 2, 2007There are automated systems that don't care about NFP, subprime, Northern Rock, Greenspan's book or anything else. They do what they are programmed and they are automated. I can assure you that I know this to be true. I also have strategies that ...
Automated Trading
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philmcgrew replied Oct 2, 2007No offense but you guys could just download the platform and find out for yourselves a lot faster than it takes you to criticize something you don't know about.
Scalping with Forex.com?
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philmcgrew replied Oct 2, 2007I would simply call it discretionary. You are either automated or you're not. There really isn't anything in between. A discretionary automated system means that you weren't good enough to make it automated.
Automated Trading