Anyway I just wonder why the result from intu's QBASIC code went too far compare to our calculation. I have checked his algorithm but i found no mistake. So far my only explanation is the QBASIC random number generator is not 'truely' random. Anyone ...

A "hardcore" mathematics question

Yes!!! Finally we managed to find a solution. Btw I checked the probability of touching -3 units in 5 trials by using pascal triangle model and i got an exact 11.008% as hinted by capitalist88's approach.

A "hardcore" mathematics question

This is my best guesses by using pascal triangle. My logic is similar to the working principle of one touch option, where you will get paid if the price ever touch on your predetermined level within the predetermined period. In this case the ...

A "hardcore" mathematics question

I must admit that I'm wrong again.

A "hardcore" mathematics question

kk, no offence but i may just not understand what you looking for. I didnt mean to sound sacarstic. Intu, can you pls help to double check with your simulation with mine? Thank you. as usual I maybe wrong again.

A "hardcore" mathematics question

Yes I misunderstood your idea the 1st time but i think i read it correctly 2nd time. IMO my excel sheet did the same thing as intu's BASIC program. Maybe we should alter the winning probability by double confirm the value.

A "hardcore" mathematics question

What make you think binomial distribution cant solve your question? In fact your question and all the above discussions enlighten me to solve a discrete probability distributions for asymmetry payout using simple calculation.

A "hardcore" mathematics question

I just made a simple montecarlo simulation and the binomial distribution chart in excel. Have a look!

A "hardcore" mathematics question

ops sorry i typed 9 instead of 19 here, it should be BINOMDIST(19,30,0.4,TRUE), not BINOMDIST(9,30,0.4,TRUE). Anyway BINOMDIST(19,30,0.4,TRUE) + BINOMDIST(10,30,0.6,TRUE) = 1

A "hardcore" mathematics question

LossTrades + WinTrades = 30 LossTrades - WinTrades >= 10 Solve the above equations then we know Loss >= 20 so that we can have at least 10 unit of losses. so the cumulative probabability from 0 to 19 losses is BINOMDIST(9,30,0.4,TRUE), which is ...

A "hardcore" mathematics question

ops my bad, i think i misunderstood the question. But then this can be still answer by binomial distribution.

A "hardcore" mathematics question

Maybe I should explain a bit. BINOMDIST(9,30,0.4,TRUE) means the cumulative probability of losing (Known as probability of success in statistic jargon) for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 times out of 30 trials. Since kk wanted to know what is the ...

A "hardcore" mathematics question

For simple payout (RRR = 1), binomial distribution can answer this easily. In your case, the number of trial is 30, the number of success is at least 10 times, and the Probability of success is 40%. Key in the following into excel, Then u will get ...

A "hardcore" mathematics question

What if the commission included?

Which MM or ECN brokers can beat Oanda Spread?

I think this is only correct under the assumptions: 1. You use fixed position sizing. 2. Winning probability of 50% with Risk Reward Ratio of 1. The actual calculation is much complicated than this. I believe the calculation of risk of ruin is a ...

How many losses can I sustain?

Cant you guys just stop promoting fxopen? I got tons of scam warning when i search fxopen in most forums. As you know there are no perfect brokers out there. My intention to start this thread is to compare the transaction cost among the ...

Which MM or ECN brokers can beat Oanda Spread?

I already gave you the formula and what you need to do is just press the calculator button accordingly. i'm pretty sure this is easier n faster than using spreadsheet.

How many losses can I sustain?

N = ln(% of Initial Account Balance) / ln(1 - %Risk per trade) Since ln(0) is not possible, therefore it is not possible to lose all money provided that you are still able to risk 1% per trade even if you left only 1 buck. no doubts, TJPLD is ...

How many losses can I sustain?

Obviously he modified my spread table using photoshop To me what does matter is the expectancy. If your expectancy is 5 pips per trade or lower, then transaction cost does matter even if you are long term trader. However I believe that most ...

Which MM or ECN brokers can beat Oanda Spread?

Does it matter?

Which MM or ECN brokers can beat Oanda Spread?