Be careful since not all numbers are completely random at all. For instance, the open is close[i+1]+-error. An even if you assume a complete randomness, the distributions will be extremely skewed and median < 0.3!

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

The outcome will completely depend on the underlying distribution used.

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Yes, it may be a good reference point, too. However, his conclusions (if prize is above the midline then there were more sellers) are not neccessarily correct. If you calculate the average for each tick within a higher TF bar, you will get the true ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

You can do the same with every repainting indicator, e.g. ZigZag, Semaphor, etc.

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Don't understand that point ... Surely, it is possible to remove the time variable (and just look at any number (for instance the prize 100 ticks back, etc.). But what exactly do you mean by "1more variable"? (And more important: Do you use only 1 ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

You've asked something and I've honestly tried to answer it ... Maybe my understanding of the 'forum' concept is different than yours.

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Maybe. However, in June I was invited to the stats department at the UCL and the Alan-Turing-Institute in London where I tried to get some discussions on the predictability of markets (although I was there for another reason). All geniuses there ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Guys, back to the topic. What is the underlying structure of the market?! It could be everything or nothing. I'd guess that most here would say that the market is deterministic to some points. However, I've never seen a true proof of this (although ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

I guess you mean that you don't use a common indicator (like RSI, Stoch, etc.)?! Unless I am very much mistaken (and my calculation was correct), I assume that you use only the 8 majors (pairs with EUR, USD, JPY, CHF, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD) in order to ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

I understand that time doesn't matter in trading since time (also in our 3D reality) is just an effect of movement through space. Thus, the conventional TFs are just arbitrary snapshots and the close prize doesn't really matter. However, maybe you ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Exactly. Allow me to comment on this. Surely, the time duration of a trade/bet will affect the distribution of it's outcome. However, it doesn't usually change the expectation for the outcome (mean) if we look at truely random markets. However, if ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Wait a minute and read again. That was not the point. What I've shown with the simulation is what CP wrote. But what you suggest is the use of 2 or more reference lines, right?! Then read my last posts again where I've mentioned that it may be ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Maybe you will start talking about it. What do you mean by "the way how to use indicators is wrong"? Do you mean something sell if stochastic is at 100 level? I think that's quite obvious. Stochastics, ZigZag, CylceIdentifier, Semaphors, Donchian ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Here is my suggestion: Let's continue with the discussion on the concept of reference points. Those who believe that others are fakers may rather contribute and explain their view of these things. How do you trade as simple as possible (k.i.s.s.)? ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

That was exactly the point that I want to prove: The average outcome will be negative. But surely, the results will vary a lot if we play games of different lengths. Keep up good work (y) BTW: What do you think about the use of two different ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Really? It's still about the edge - the reference point ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Surely, these cases may occur. However, I bet that every casino owner will do everything to fix it as soon as possible (otherwise he would lose money and would go bankrupt) ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Although it would take too long to simulate 1 billion spins on my PC I simulated what CP wrote: prob <- NULL for (j in 1:1000) { success <- 0 number <- sample(c(-1,0,1),size=1,replace=T,prob=c(0.4864865,0.027027,0.4864865)) for (i in 1:10000) { ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

@CrucialPoint: This procedure is exactly what a MA does on prize, right? And I guess that it is not enough to just look at the momentum/influx. I'd bet that you also have to establish a moving reference points for your momentum/influx indicator ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

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