I just shorted (for another reason), cca 30 c stop. But it still looks super-bullish, likely will get kicked out. k

Oil and Natural Gas

So far so good: SL@BE for the above trade, looking to take another sell cca 20 cents above the current price with a tight stop (20 c), this one is a bit riskier. (Edit: Apart from the volume-price analysis, I use pivots. My initial trade corresponds ...

vsa with Malcolm

FWIW, I am short in Oil since yesterday. I think the downtrend should proceed... Let us see what the news bring. k image

vsa with Malcolm

subscribed, thanks.

Bigwal pitches up here till I decide where I am going

You don't rely on prediction: Market volatility (in the sense of thick tail of the distribution of returns on any TF) is simply a statistical fact. To put it differently, with such distinction one could then argue that also arbitrage is prediction, ...

Non-Predictive Trading

I respectfully disagree. Even if you do not share an opinion that following the market (say, via a simple Renko strategy: buy green brick, stop and reverse at red brick) is not predicting the market, one can think of a pure momentum-based strategy ...

Non-Predictive Trading

The key elements to a good trading strategy are: 1) Buy when the price is going up and sell when the price is going down. 2) Cut the losses early. (Especially: never add to a losing trade!) 3) Let the winners run. The dumb money (on average) does ...

Non-Predictive Trading

Any study of market sentiment will show that dumb money is usually found on the wrong side of the trade, and when it isn't the market will return to get their positions. This is hardly a big secret - Larry Williams used CoT data since the 70's and ...

Trading Logic and Market Constants

Note that the Stochastic oscillator gives you essentially the same information, it is just that it is usually set for close prices, not high/low. For example, this is what happens when you add the Stochastic with period 20 to my example above... k ...

Multi dimensional Donchian channels indicator

You don't really need this indicator. One can either use the Donchian Channel itself, or for visual purposes you can superimpose a Zigzag with the same length parameter as the Donchian, for example if you use a Donchian Channel of 20, you can add ...

Multi dimensional Donchian channels indicator

Yes, it's good for reversals. If you want to use it for pullbacks (better imho), you may want to look into the blue/red signals a bit better. I haven't tried to automatize it myself. If I would have, I would do the same thing as you did. Cheers, k ...

The 3-plan

I thought so as well. However, I recently read Steidlmayer's book, and there is a clear statement (chapters 3 and 4) that the '60s commodities markets tended to be mean-reverting (when he developed the market profile), whereas with the advent of ...

What are the big Ideas in successful trading?

The coloured (blue/red) lines correspond to the different ways of how one can reach a certain price. It can be either: Up-Down-Up (recovering from a minimum) or Down-Up-Down (down from a maximum). The white line is supposed to calculate the general ...

The 3-plan

I see it on Oanda (live account), not on FXCM. If one has a losing position because of this, one should complain. It looks like a giant spread widening. image k

ZAR/JPY extreme volatility - anyone seeing this?

I guess many bars have both potential end-of-bar and mid-bar transient zones when h=1. In the RS indicator that would be counted as two potential problems per bar. k

Transient Zones - Basics