ATM there is no good reason. Up until yesterday it looked promising that the Greek situation was going to be resolved in short order. That was a good premise to buy on because the entire move south (since November) was built on the idea that Greece ...

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

The whole point of the attack is to take out the barrier. The trade is a stop hunt for you, me and anyone else helping the attackers but the attackers only care about the barrier. For an example, Lets say I sell you a 200m DNT at 3600 and 3800. You ...

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

By luck... By Skill... Or by running an EA based on a system with "true" positive expectancy.

The only thing I have learn

I have to be honest I'm watching this trade carefully. I didn't expect it to fall this far, but given the news I suppose it was inevitable. The Greek PM is behaving stupidly. I think a deal will still get done, but we may be in for a rocky road ...

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

I guess I posed the question wrong. It's not so much blowing your account on trade 10,001 that I was concerned about, its that trade 10,001 through X could be a long string of losses. The point I was trying to make was that the only reason you have ...

The only thing I have learn

The problem "I" have with this line of thought is that it's all probability based. The problem with building a method based on probabilities is that even with 10,000 trade examples, trade #10,001 could be a long tail event that makes your system a ...

The only thing I have learn

Good lord. Now every time someone sees a meaningful price move they are going to call it a stop hunt.... This was no stop hunt. We got 2 moderatly bad numbers out of the euro, and 2 really good numbers out of the US. This is noting more then basic ...

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

I'm not sure how many times it needs to be said. If you can make money doing basic TA or scalping the DOM or watching the fundies... Go do it. I'm not here to prove anyones system wrong. I'm here to show people how I trade. If you don't believe in ...

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

Nail on the head Scotty.. Nail on the head.

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

Flosom, your new at this and from your perspective what your saying makes perfect sense. I've been in this business for over 5 years now and I'm speaking to you from experiece. The problem with your line of thinking is that you assume (like a real ...

Risk your life savings

The option barrier scenario happens a handful of times a week, but thats just one setup. Trades of a similar nature are happening constantly. Sometimes 2 or 3 battles (with different objectives and timelines) are occuring simulatiously on a single ...

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

Its the same general concept but macro factors replace options as the underlying driver. Its still all about where money will be moving IN THE FUTURE. I'll be posting updates regarding my euro long trade. That should give you some insight into how I ...

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

It is an alternative and I thought about noting it. I concluded it was easier to stick with intentions being on the up and up. KISS as is were.

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

A true cascade is instant. One set of stops moves price into another set of stops, which drives into in the next set. It's rare, but I've seen 100+ pip cascades.

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

I like trading with the hunters because the probabilities are better. High win rates for small pips makes me feel good. Thats just personal preference though. As I said, you can build systems in many diffrent ways from that type of event. If you ...

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

I haven't read that yet.. its on my list. Ya know that FTI guy really knows his shit. Its kinda funny cuz I started reading the thread from the beginning and I kept think "man this guy must have been trading some size" and "wow he really has a deep ...

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

Well, seeing as how I'm 1 response short of having the interest I needed to start the book, it looks like I will be starting it this weekend. Having already written a lot of it throughout the forum and in training Mike, I imagine it shouldn't take ...

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

I probably learned more from that book then all the other trading books combined.

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

Good eye... I don't know why I was thinking fomc.... whatever that news was on friday that took us to 3795...

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

I don't see thats its really an inefficiency of the market. This is basic orderflow mechanics in action, so short of the market mechanics changing; I don't see the trade going away. Now there is an argument to be made that the players may work a ...

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom