Wow. Now it's tricky. If the FED stays credibly dovish it would be very USD negative, while if they sound more hawkish now it would be very USD positive. Clarida up in a few minutes.

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Think the CPIs will provide direction. Since markets have panicked already in the last days the reaction will probably be skewed to the upside. I estimate it like this: <= 0.2% UP 0.3% probably up (maybe small dip, but it dipped already) 0.4% dip, ...

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Maybe even at 1.2222 because this number attracts sharks naturally. I think that by now tons of stop losses are sitting just above 1.2185 region. But believe it or not, it might actually depend on tomorrow‘s CPI number. Though the FED already ...

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Remarkable, how well the EURUSD holds up despite stock markets crashing.

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I understand he computes it. But it is easy if you have the data, even in Excel it is just a predefined formula, even if you don‘t know how you would compute it yourself. The more complicated task is to build profitable signals based on this ...

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Support as expected (2 pips higher), so I think this H4 wedge is valid.

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On the other hand this might become a falling wedge on H4 in which case 1.2121 should support next.

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It might be one, probably it would bounce one more time from the support to above 1.22 before breaking.

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Potential volatility at tomorrow's CPI print, as markets are now worrying about this number coming in higher than +0,3%, which would already be the highest April MoM forecast since 2000.

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When I posted it it was not broken yet. Now it broke to the downside, not as expected. Well sometimes it breaks to the downside and turns at the level of the peak, but seems not the case here. @josip: Yes it was on M3, but looked good. Generally you ...

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Falling wedge... Would recommend to close shorts here and go long.

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I think as long as H4 keeps opening above 1.2144 it looks fine for your long. High probability of seeing highs above 1.2175 I reckon, because we were hovering at this threshold so long today, probably lots of stop-losses gathering around there.

EURUSD only

I think 1.2144 will support on H4, potential dip to 1.2131. Also agree that 1.2210 is a region with selling pressure, would sell a few longs there.

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Look at it objectively. His comment is not wrong at all. In 2008 the purchasing power parity was at 1.20 now it is above 1.40. This is the long-term anchor, so there is no reason to think it would be implausible that it could go to 1.60 again. As ...

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The payrolls number has an incredible volatility in general, but this does not explain such a miss. In this particular instance it seems that many indicators, especially new big data based indicators gave completely incorrect picture. It seems that ...

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Haha, just meant based on medium term lines, some reaching back years. Think we will reach it next week, Ata already said he wants to go long at 1.2136 in case we get back there...

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Indeed, but we must not forget that it was the greatest payrolls miss compared to expectations in the whole history. So we all witnessed a historical moment today. Cheers ladies and gentlemen.

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hey energies, love how you switched the slope of your channel from negative to positive - looks much better now in my eyes. In my medium term setup 1.2275 is the next strong resistance.

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Yes, same boat, I just have a too huge position on...

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Think there is a chance of a temporary rebound from 1.2175

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