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JeremyWS replied Oct 27, 2013Need to see an uptick in Volatility for the USD to be bid. The correlation between the Deutsche bank FX vol index and the Dollar index is pretty clear.
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
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JeremyWS replied Oct 27, 2013fair enough I suppose, but the EZ macro picture isn't that rosy, the Citigroup economic surprise index has been dropping fast and is now nearly in negative territory, and even though CPI is only about 1% its direction is of concern. And while I ...
EURUSD
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JeremyWS replied Oct 27, 2013EURUSD vs ECB nominal liquidity (inverted, white) ECB NOM LIQ is dropping fast and we'll likely see that the ECB will want to intervene via LTRO (or other measure to push EONIA lower, potentially lower Refi rate etc) Fundamentally, its hard to ...
EURUSD
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JeremyWS replied Oct 25, 2013I know why Im short, was wondering why you cared? Either way, look at a 7 day ROC, this thing can't keep this momentum for long, its at a 2 SD level
EURUSD
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JeremyWS replied Oct 25, 2013I dunno if I'm looking for 1.42 or so we can deduce if a baseline of 0.85 for EURGBP then we can see 1.67 or so.
EURUSD
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JeremyWS replied Oct 25, 2013been a lot of chat about EURCAD, I'm short at 1.4418, looks very overextended and still at resistance, Stochastics at a very extreme level.
EURUSD
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JeremyWS replied Oct 25, 2013Morgan stanley Spot FX desk update for those interested. Can post Deutsche's if anyone wants, but its pretty similar. Morgan Stanley London Spot Desk: EURUSD: Support - 1.3750, 1.3710, 1.3640 Resistance - 1.3835, 1.3870, 1.3970 Attempts lower ...
EURUSD
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JeremyWS replied Oct 24, 2013And... BoAML Asia Open: FX had a bit of an unwind day where we saw USD buying against many pairs – though flows were not impulsive. Equity flows were more interesting, where yesterday we saw half of last week’s cash equity buying unwound and today ...
EURUSD
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JeremyWS replied Oct 24, 2013If anyone cares, Citi FX's Asia trading report, mostly an update but some nice insights. Citi FX: The ebb and flow of USD trading resulted in strong turnover Thursday. Once again, USDJPY saw very high interest, despite flat performance, and so did ...
EURUSD
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JeremyWS replied Oct 24, 2013My view on EURCAD, Seems to be up at resistance as you noted, fair value models are firmly anchored well below market. RSI in the mid 80's >than 1 SD from 200 SMA signals overextension too. While we could see 1.50 as suggested by Ken, we may head ...
EURUSD
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JeremyWS replied Oct 24, 2013oh yeah fair enough, retailers are insignificant unless we all pooled together to move something like the NZD on a late sunday evening.
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
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JeremyWS replied Oct 24, 2013Cable average volume per day is 472,000,000,000 USD so its actually (5,200,000*1.6)/472,000,000,000
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
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JeremyWS replied Oct 24, 2013EUR 1Month vols No discernible skew. 1M Risk Reversal under 0.15 vol points. Option markets uncertain, with a neat U-shape and ATM at the turning point (base) Also including a chart of RR's over the year
EURUSD
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JeremyWS replied Oct 24, 2013ECB liquidty is running a bit low, definite possibility. EONIA vs Nominal Liquidity level
EURUSD
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JeremyWS replied Oct 24, 2013Negative rates are still on the table. Especially if EONIA forwards / short term rates start to edge higher
EURUSD