I do not agree that pip goal has no effect on expectancy. For equidistant 1000 pip goal, the house edge is 1 - (1000 - 2) / (1000 + 2) = 0.4% For equidistant 100 pip goal, the house edge is 1 - (100 - 2) / (100 + 2) = 3.9% For equidistant 10 pip ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Not sure whether i understand your question or not but personally I would trade the one with higher profit factor since both of them have high correlations. The diversification has little effect in this case.

A Quiz about Money Management

Beware of survivorship bias!!!

It is possible to make 2000 from 200 in Forex? It is easy or very difficult?

Optimal kelly's betting size is just for a guidance. Trading system with lower risk always has higher optimal kelly's betting size.

A Quiz about Money Management

I do agree that trader with lower reward/risk is more vulnerable to black swan risk. However since both trader has different profit factor therefore it is not possible to evaluate the impact of black swan based on the limited info. Btw we just ...

A Quiz about Money Management

Why so many people like to separate the risk reward ratio and winning probability in performance evaluation? Experienced trader should know that both of them must be taken into consideration in performance analysis. RRR alone or Win% alone only ...

A Quiz about Money Management

I have no idea why you said that you got multiple answer to this scenario. Do you have any calculations to support your statement?

A Quiz about Money Management

Just one best performance week is not enough to judge the performance. Further more your best performance week has only profit factor of 1.48 with almost 20% drawndown! So do not be surprised if you lose 50% of your money or even more in your worst ...

It is possible to make 2000 from 200 in Forex? It is easy or very difficult?

Based on the limited data on this scenario, I think the risk adjusted return is a better way to evaluate their performance. I never used winning rate alone to judge a system because it only tells part of the story.

A Quiz about Money Management

Trader A has smaller risk (Lower drawdown) than trader B although they made same amount of money.

A Quiz about Money Management

Both of them have same profit.

A Quiz about Money Management

How you verify that your randomized chart is not same as real chart? How you verify that a fair coin simulation is as good as real fair coin? How you verify that a fair dice simulation is not same as real loaded dice? If you know the answers then ...

Can you tell with naked eyes?

It can be done. I bet 100 bucks for it. The main reason that LTCM failed not because they used randomized data to test their model but they use wrong distribution assumption to model the market.

Can you tell with naked eyes?

Nope. If i can figure out the parameter of price distribution of the market, then i can use a random number generator to simulate the real price movement. Mandelbrot did it by using his multifractal trading time technique but just too bad i hardly ...

Can you tell with naked eyes?

Unless your randomized chart has similar probability distribution with real market (High kurtosis and fat tails), else I dont think you can use a randomized chart to check the validity of your system. Like I mentioned previously it is the price ...

Can you tell with naked eyes?

I just played the spot the fake game at ARORA website and it's fun. Now let's do some math here after the fun. I use the game named Reindeer for example. There are 40 trials in this game. Each success guess will add approximately 1,000 points while ...

Can you tell with naked eyes?

For those who interested to do their own calculation on different scenario, i would suggest this excel formula. x = number of trials y = number of consecutive losses z = probability of losses in single trial. =1 - binomdist(0, x - y + 1, z^y, false) ...

Double up and get rich???

This is my bread & butter too! The probability theory is the foundation of my quantitative trading model. P/S: The price surged to half of my 50pips TP while risking 5pips only. no mood to trade now

Can you tell with naked eyes?

Judging from various threads and posts from OP, i guess he wanted to know why the price pattern exist even in a random generated chart while his original intention was to prove that real market price is not random. Personally I think that the ...

Can you tell with naked eyes?

Well i have no intention to make fun of anybody. To me his original question is more like find out the difference in between random and non random chart but I just suggested to rephrase the question to "spot the real and fake chart". For ...

Can you tell with naked eyes?