They're starting to hit a double speak at this point. I think I would've been more ok with 0.5bps with some future guidance on it. They kept echoing data dependence and the data being pretty decent. The fact that we were on the middle of 0.25/0.50 ...

Fed's Goolsbee: I am comfortable with the Fed's 50 bps rate cut

It shows that you guys keep touting the labor market as resilient and historically strong. It seems like you are wary/scared of a possible downturn in the employment being much more accelerated and aggressive at this point.

Fed's Goolsbee: I am comfortable with the Fed's 50 bps rate cut

[quote=J-K;15002174]Was expecting a huge drop Error 404 lol[/quote Need to wait for Powell to speak since the majority of markets were already leaning towards the 50 bps it seems. I guess it's all about forward guidance and how we perceive their ...

FOMC Summary of Economic Projections

Yeah we are all going to be speculating. I'm sticking with a 25 bps for now. We will find out in a few short hours though.

25 or 50? That is the question we want to ask the Fed today

It sounds like the market is out of touch and would love to make new artificial highs for the sake of new highs.

Record Wagers on Fed Cuts at Risk If Powell Fails to Go Big

For certain mate. There target was a 2% inflation. There bigger risk with this economy slowing is that inflation now falls even lower than their target range.

CA Consumer Price Index, August 2024

Inflation is making progress atleast.

CA Consumer Price Index, August 2024

This is what I'm waiting to see currently is what will the inflation come in. If all these cuts have been made and inflation still hasn't made major moves downwards then yeah this is a precursor across the pond.

CA housing starts for August 2024

Yeah I don't see 50 next week.

25 or 50?

I just want to know how the markets still speculate the 100 bps in cuts? I only see 0.25% at SEPT currently. Do we get a 0.50% move and a 0.25% in the next two meetings? I think that would cause quite an alarm if FED starting aggressively cutting ...

US Consumer Price Index - August 2024

Have you not seen their currency battered for the last few years or what ? This is not a sudden change they’ve literally been voicing this for months prior to their first hike.

BOJ Nakagawa: To adjust easing level if outlook fulfilled

That just means I should buy USD in the interim.

Short bets against the USD continued to pile up: COT Report

Opinions are like a**holes everyone has one.

Jumbo 50 basis points Fed rate cut should not raise alarm, analyst says

Agreed but here's the disconnect which is the MARKETS. The markets are indicating a 100bps by the end of the year. In my opinion I don't see that at this moment unless data really deteriorates in the following months. So what happens if the cuts ...

The US Employment Situation -- August 2024

If I remember the last NFP that's what end up happening as well the USD strengthening. I'm getting a feeling that's going to happen again but just an opinion. We will see.

Bears circle weakening dollar as Fed rate cuts loom

Says who? The markets? The genie in the bottle? Nothing is for certain.

ADP: US Private Sector Employment Increased by 99,000 Jobs in August; Annual Pay was Up 4.8%

That's the thing that has me slightly intrigued. We aren't the only ones to voice the disconnect with what the markets expect the FEDS to do vs the actual data that has come in regards to rate cutting. I can't see a 100 BPS currently like you said ...

US Job Openings and Labor Turnover – July 2024

Agreed - I just don't see how the FED will be able to pull a 50bps. Right now we got a Sept for certain, do we even know if the data will deteriorate enough for a Oct & Dec cut? Only time and data will tell at this moment.

US Job Openings and Labor Turnover – July 2024

He said they believe they're on a stable path back towards the 2% inflation. It's definitely more of the cooling/slack in the labor market that he's now worried about. My issue is we always knew that eventually you'd get to a point where inflation ...

Has the US Economy Beaten Inflation?

FEDS pinned themselves on the wall as of recent. The FEDS were too slow on the rate rising with the "temporary inflation" just for them to be forced to be restrictive for longer. Now inflation is making small strides back to the 2% but the ...

Fed Chair Powell indicates interest rate cuts ahead: ‘The time has come for policy to adjust’