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Systematic Trend Trading

what is the win rate for a coin flip? 50% right? * credit to Rivo for data and chart image

Systematic Trend Trading

Yes it is, money on the line is money on the line... Once you accept the outcome is uncertain you can go about the process, traders who know the outcome are the ones that blow up.

Systematic Trend Trading

You think you know what your win rate is, but you don't know. You think you know the best exit, but you don't know... The fastest and easiest way to be right is to accept you don't know.

Systematic Trend Trading

All these equity curves had 17% win rate and average RR of 6R - what you never know is what sequence the winners and losers will come in.(well, you never know your win rate either, you only know what it was) Get your position size wrong and some ...

Systematic Trend Trading

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Systematic Trend Trading

Hi Danzka, went through the very same process myself. Some of the mental barriers we set are actually easy to overcome by just doing it, and it can open up a whole new way of thinking about the problem. Very true about the entry process too, we ...

Systematic Trend Trading

If losses are a problem you can just widen your stop and trail, you will have a lower average RR but a higher win rate. You adjust position size accordingly and be patient. The technical elements should still remain simple. Nick Radge has a very ...

Systematic Trend Trading

No short cuts... get over that one and you can start the process of growing your account.

Systematic Trend Trading

yes, got my target just before it reversed. I wasn't considering closing it early, I rarely do that anymore. I was picturing it breaking down to 15-20R but I do that with every trade

Systematic Trend Trading

"According to the authors, up to 45% of investor's behavior is genetic and *is impervious to education.* Meaning, no matter how many times you tell them about the various biases, it will never sink in."

Systematic Trend Trading

Trade 166 +7R Trade 167,168,169,170,171,172 stopped image

Systematic Trend Trading

If you are still at the stage where you believe analysis is the answer this is a simple system that might make you consider things differently. 1. If the previous week closed bullish only long this week. If the previous week closed bearish only ...

Systematic Trend Trading

I have been through the worm hole on direction filters and so far all my data suggests: 1.Simple works as well as complex and in fact complex filters have an increased opportunity cost - you miss too many good set ups trying to achieve precision. 2. ...

Systematic Trend Trading

Nasim Taleb has some good points on these negative skewed systems... they all end suddenly

Systematic Trend Trading

when you do everything right, just upside down...90% win rate system I found on FF forum image

Systematic Trend Trading

start to trail over 7R and only ever exit on a trail... you want unbounded upside. It's a hard skill and I'm still in mental training myself. The secret is to never consider a small sample over a large sample - a trade that comes within a few pips ...

Systematic Trend Trading

really close to becoming a winner and now price is reversing, knowing why not to take profit early is vital but it never feels like the right thing to do...surely taking the 4R now is better than nothing? image

Systematic Trend Trading

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Systematic Trend Trading

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Systematic Trend Trading