It hasn't violated prior lows or the main uptrend line from May. Has to do something pretty soon, can't stay under the recent downtrend line and avoid violating the uptrend. Looks to me like the lines cross in about 24 hours.

EURUSD

Skew as in the shape of the implied volatility curve. It's usually referred to as a smile because the at the money options have cheaper volatility built into them, while farther out of the money options have higher volatility in their price. For ...

EURUSD

I don't believe you can glean any directional insight from options. You can see where the skew is though, in some things they will price out of the money put or call higher. You can see by just looking at the prices, if the puts 100 pips out of the ...

EURUSD

You guys know way more about forex than me, so I won’t say anything about that. Options, however, are my expertise. You can’t really “trade” options per se, spreads too wide, commissions too high. You can use them very effectively to obtain leverage ...

EURUSD

It is the 8th time it has done almost the exact same thing since April. We have a quick run up, then we have a pullback in the 200 to 250ish pip range, only to continue higher is its obvious uptrend. Until we get a confirmed break of the line in ...

EURUSD only

That might be why it is gapping up right now, it is trading a bit above the range for most of Friday at 1.1618.

EURUSD

1.1660 has made itself out to be a line in the sand. Bulls have to get above it and stay above it to shift the medium term trend back to positive. Midpoint of 1660 and 1575 is 1617, right where we are now. Fed shouldn’t say anything new today and ...

EURUSD only

Seems like it doesn’t want to move no matter what, we didn’t even react at all to today’s data. Bulls need to get over 1670, bears need to get under 1575. In between those numbers I am not sure how anyone can read into the next significant move. For ...

EURUSD only

Hmm, seems like a few too many bears. Catalonia is a non-issue for now, and could even be considered positive since it is over for the time being. Powell vs. Taylor is a significant dollar negative, but I am not sure how much has been priced in so ...

EURUSD only

Personally, I can’t see one right now, only thing I see is support at 1.15, but seems like lots of people are looking at that. If this is the break where we drop down there, it shouldn’t give people a chance to get in short at a higher level. No ...

EURUSD only

The head and shoulders means everything, I mean, what if everyone in the world ends up with dandruff? We wouldn’t want that, would we? Ok then, let’s make sure we keep the H&S intact. But seriously, your point is well taken, the medium term trend ...

EURUSD only

If bears don’t keep this thing down, it will not take much to invalidate the head and shoulders. If there aren’t enough bears to keep going with a clear H&S and momentum on their side, then it should go higher than 1.1724. What it “should” do is ...

EURUSD only

Well we broke to a new low, but only for a second, so no real confirmation of the head and shoulders. I guess they are waiting to decide if they want to change the medium term trend to down or not. I vote yes, since down would be more interesting ...

EURUSD

Why only 8 below the current low, if I may ask? Seems like we should bounce and that was the bottom for today, or we should do a real test which would take us to 1660 to 1670.

EURUSD

Hmm, we need to break 1661 (low from 8/17) for the head and shoulders confirmation, but only 1688 low today. Not a really a great triple bottom, but that could be it. A confirm break of 1661 should usher in a change in the medium term trend and ...

EURUSD

Sorry, I am old, I don't speak emoji

EURUSD

Everyone over the weekend was calling for a big Euro drop on Catalan. Now we have durable goods much better than expected, US treasury yields soaring, and a possible Taylor fed chief. So the Euro has to be down on all that, it just has to be, right? ...

EURUSD

Can we test 1670 please? It would be nice to know if we have a H&S or we don't, if we don't we get a nice triple bottom. But the way this thing is trading seems like retail sells, then big guys buy and run it back up, we may not get a test of recent ...

EURUSD