Thanks katrooo. USD/CAD needs a retrace on the 3 hr chart soon -I say tomorrow from all of this downward movement thus far. That being said, I might get in a long today and close tomorrow before waiting for a nice price to load up on shorts. ...

The College Trader

Hahaha, that's a nice quote. GBP/NZD hit target way sooner than I expected...all trades closed at expected TPs (+6%). Looking on Dailies for entries now... Might long USD/CAD and then wait for an initial short entry for the following ...

The College Trader

So that LONG Euro yesterday turned out to be a short, yeah, I opened the complete opposite position. That mistake lost me 4% when I realized this morning at ~1.2850, no more beers when trading. Okay here is what I have now. GBP/NZD short @ 2.211 ...

The College Trader

Long EURO @ 1.2760...TP @ 1.2800. Long EUR/GBP @ .8181...TP @ 0.8220. After these two trades hit TP I think I may make some longer-term trades focusing on H4 and Daily charts. Univerisity is coming up in a few weeks, and I don't want to be in trades ...

The College Trader

What's the time scale on the x-axis (0-50)?

Method HDKR

mfoste1 My reason for shorting USD/CAD is because of the inherent strength of Canada. Our banking system, economy, and natural reserves of resources will only display a successful dollar in the next year(s) to come. I believe the uptrend won't push ...

The College Trader

Reopened AUD/USD at 0.91322, will hold until I see the bottom of this downtrend with SL at BE, currently up ~100 pips. I intend to hold for weeks unless I see otherwise -and add when the pairs retraces. Also added a GBP/USD that I dumped this ...

The College Trader

Dumped all my AUD/USD at +56 pips, 3 hr and 1 hr was oversold, so I'm going to wait for retracement and enter at another nice price for the longterm. Dumped all positive GBP/USD as, like AUD, was oversold...going to wait for retracement as well. ...

The College Trader

Also, too often do humans mistake probabilities to be true when in fact conditional probabilities must be considered. With this notion, we can utilize forex system's apparent success rates (like swing trading, fibonacci, elliot wave) and determine ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

I was confused at first reading what you guys were talking about, but then I realized. Small biases do work in your favour, and yes, by moving the stops closer to the current price will increase SLs being hit, but ensure smaller profits when SLs is ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

Yeah, a bit off topic from the main discussion. ForexQuant, since Troikaone1 mentioned it, are you in the field of mathematical finance?

Random walk and Pascals triangle

What I mean by initial condition is that your first move must be "up". That is, you open a position and then the first step (1) is to the left. Is that what you meant by... ...? Otherwise, I'm unsure what your spreadsheet represents, could you ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

medici, if the initial condition is that the position moves "up", shouldn't step one be 100% for +1R, instead of 50%? Maybe I'm not understanding exactly what you're doing, but your excel spreadsheet is valid only for a trade where step 1 is "up", ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

Not sure if you were directed at me, but I do. I'm merely sharing my long term trades. Yesterday I picked up a CAD/JPY short to add ~+2% of capital.

Buy dip sell high with rsi

At least BE isn't loosing it all. If you're averaging 50% pip wins/loses, then it seems you're just as good off making uneducated guesses to which way a pair would run. That being said, any "systems" you've used aren't really implemented properly or ...

I am demotivated...

Okay, bought USD/CAD now @ 1.1838. Still has some room to run down I think, but we're around the low from June 21, so I'm don't know whether the break will be up or down. It seems this pair loves to range because we're so close to parity. Buy orders ...

Buy dip sell high with rsi

I agree, we can also apply back-tests to theoretical entries as well. For example, when an indicator reaches a certain level.

Random walk and Pascals triangle

How will you be able to obtain P(stopped out) or P(take profit) without using historical data of walks for pinbars at a swing high? Mere deviation from a central price based on probabilities of random walks? I like the idea, but forex isn't random, ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

Check your sig figs. You may have lost some data in digits. EDIT>You got it.

Random walk and Pascals triangle

ForexQuant, extend your 'triangle' to include probabilities of -2R through to -6R, both sides should have the same probabilities. Let's say that you enter a position at 1.000. Think of the Excel cells with given probabilities as vertices and the ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle