url yesterday there was a short spike low at 1,1998 ???

EUR/CHF

The main issue is that as long as Mr. Market believes that a fair price is much below 1,20 then SNB can't exit. Going down cent by cent is no option since HF would immediately cash in the hugest profits ever seen. And jumping out when it might free ...

EUR/CHF

I agree with many of your points, but my result is different. Converging purchase power and the end of deflation would mean that SNB can remove the floor even without inflation coming close to 2%. T. Jordan 2010: "Price stability is equated with a ...

EUR/CHF

Yes, inflation +0.3% m/m as expected. This is a lot. The y/y effect is small only because the same +0.3% happened to be there for Oct. 2011. Such effects will not be there in the next 4 months where -0.82% will go out of the y/y statistics. So even ...

EUR/CHF

for those dreaming of a floor hike: there are rumours that SNB sells EUR (Harwig Wild, Metzler).

EUR/CHF

SNB public bonds?

EUR/CHF

A Soros-like bet could be to short EUR/CHF, potentially with a smaller long position for EUR/USD as hedge. Reason: EUR/CHF is asymmetric, it can go up only a bit, but go down a lot (like GBP). And the attack against the CHF was significantly larger ...

EUR/CHF

I believe EUR/CHF will neither go back to 1,201 nor up above 1,22. Reason: for the moment floor is credible, and investors should price in upwards potentital (say 10%) without big downward potential (so 90% weight on 1,201). Changes may only occur ...

EUR/CHF

UBS and CS smarter than S&P ?? url "It is very important to take into account that SNB cash holdings at other central banks constitute a significant part of its 'sovereign bond allocation,'" said Maxime Botteron, an economist at Credit Suisse. ... ...

EUR/CHF

For me a rate around 1,21 sounds like: - without SNB exchange rate would now be around 1,10 (estimation based on EUR/USD) and 90% likelihood that without SNB it won't go up beyond 1,20 - floor break very unlikely for the next months - 10% ...

EUR/CHF

SNB data of end of June: 60% in € 85% in sovereign bonds url and here we find 95b CHF deposits with other CB: url So although the deposits with other CBs are significant, there would be still enough for S&P's statement of 80b

EUR/CHF

what do you think about this story: url

EUR/CHF

If sight deposits are invested in foreign currencies and contain mainly German and French bonds, how is this reflected in SNB's CHF denominated sight deposits? E.g. if EUR/CHF rises or when interests on bunds fall, would this not trigger a rise of ...

EUR/CHF

Jordan speech: CHF still overvalued at 1,20..1,21. Too early to tell if Euro crisis is over. Peg was beneficiary. So floor will remain at 1,20 because Euro crisis still threatening ?

EUR/CHF

Sure, SNB will tell us that they will remove the floor in one month so that we can all bet long on CHF and cash in billions :-; Unless there is a significant increase of EUR/CHF SNB can't tell us more than that the floor is not forever. The reason ...

EUR/CHF

I agree that in the short term the floor will not "break" against the will of the SNB, since EZ crisis is now easing. Even a Grexit could be mastered by SNB. On the other hand, SNB cannot support the floor forever and accumulate risks forever. What ...

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF left the floor since more than a week. Why is SNB still increasing the Sight deposits of domestic banks by 3,0b ? 1. They want to push the exchange rate away from the floor? If so why? a. To install a higher floor? b. To terminate the peg? ...

EUR/CHF

SNB foresees an end of deflation soon, but no risk of significant inflation: url However PPI m/m expectations of -0.2% were proven completely wrong, since the actual value is +0.5%. So like it or not, deflation pressures are easing and inflation ...

EUR/CHF

Just before the peg on 05.09.2011: EUR/CHF 1.11 EUR/USD 1.41 Now EUR/USD 1.29, i.e. EUR got weaker compared to 05.09.2011. Why would you expect EUR/CHF at 1.21 or 1.25? Rather without SNB interventions it would be around parity (1.11*1.21/1.41). So ...

EUR/CHF

Accounting-wise you are right. In reality, however, the loss is there because no one buys billions of EUR for 1,20CHF. Without the peg, SNB could buy EUR for around parity. Therefore pegging can't be a strategy for SNB gains.

EUR/CHF