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yieldjunkie commented Aug 1, 2025This one has got some legs to it
The US Employment Situation -- July 2025
- yieldjunkie commented Jun 24, 2025
They better watch out, he's gonna start counting down from 10!
Trump: Israel. Do not drop those bombs. If you do it is a major violation. Bring your pilots...
- yieldjunkie commented Apr 3, 2025
url "Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners."
How did the U.S. arrive at its tariff figures?
- yieldjunkie commented Sep 18, 2024
He’s gonna need to revise a few books!
Dalio Sees ‘Real Issues’ in China, Keeps Small Exposure
- yieldjunkie commented Jul 26, 2024
This makes quite the pairing with this week's strong advanced GDP report.US Personal Income and Outlays, June 2024
- yieldjunkie commented Jul 26, 2024
Check the title of the data series, guys, it has your answer. The second sentence of the article does, too
This is a revision to the preliminary data released two weeks ago: url US consumer confidence declines in July
- yieldjunkie commented Jun 12, 2024
Seems the auction buyers yesterday had the right idea. Even more reason to scrutinize today’s dot plot!
US Consumer Price Index - May 2024
- yieldjunkie commented Jan 11, 2024
GBTC already suffering from the fee war! Wild that they didn't slash that 150bps expense ratio to defend their advantage. Their loss - it's finally time to exit that trade and look for opportunities to roll into BTC at a cool 0bp expense ratio ...
$2.3 billion spot Bitcoin trading volume just minutes since market opened
- yieldjunkie replied Jan 11, 2024
Been almost two years since I checked in here - happily holding this position, up ~100%, with an average cost of $11.06.
Uranium
- yieldjunkie replied Oct 15, 2023
Back to highlight a few things. The following points from my last post remain relevant: Further Thoughts on Sea Change, memo from Howard Marks which is a continuation of the one noted here. Sadly was made public 4.5 months after it's publish date. I ...
Yieldjunkie's Short-term Sentiment: Indices, Macro Risk Env
- yieldjunkie commented Sep 27, 2023
This is a ridiculously underresearched comment. Go look at his track record, you might be impressed: url I hope you put more effort than this into your trades.
Fed’s Kashkari: Open to Possibility We May Need More Than One Hike
- yieldjunkie commented Sep 15, 2023
Sometimes things just don't make sense, but you're also missing a key component here buddy.. What the market expected was going to happen... How does my expectation differ from the consensus. See "second-level thinking" in this classic: url
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
- yieldjunkie replied May 26, 2023
I think the most relevant, and mispriced, risk right now from the market's point of view is that US inflation accelerates. I'll outline the case for this below: Fed funds futures have been, to my continued shock, pricing in cuts by year end for ...
Yieldjunkie's Short-term Sentiment: Indices, Macro Risk Env
- yieldjunkie replied May 12, 2023
Not many posts because there still isn't much to say. I came back here to make a note of something that recently occurred to me related to the "bull case" for risk. A material shift in behavior and composition of market participants could be to ...
Yieldjunkie's Short-term Sentiment: Indices, Macro Risk Env
- yieldjunkie commented May 10, 2023
I suspect Powell's "Public confidence" rating is strongly correlated with the level and anticipated direction of rates and nothing else. No surprise there. It's the cheap-money chasers who are displeased now, but were not displeased when it was ...
Jerome Powell Faces Lowest Public Confidence for Fed Chairman on Record, Gallup Says