are you saying tick, or one minute charts are more predictable than daily charts? ****let me rephrase that, candles or time frames are nothing but representations of the BID/ASK price cut into different time periods..... so I don't want to get into ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

Although I somewhat agree with what you say.... I disagree to the extent of the impact you purport market makers, Dealers, Hedge funds, Asset class managers etc ...."Big money" has on the Market. first of all not all of them have the same interests, ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

Hey there friend, I think by now I have been clear on my position that T/A alone does not give you and edge as far as using historical data to accurately predict future movement. T/A being any kind of visual representation of BID/ASK price and any ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

I'm all for scientific inquiry and open discussion... let me know how I can help

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

thanks, interesting stuff.

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

seemingly yes, what you say should be correct... .However,there are major players which is mainly responsible for price movement .I called 'it' simply as 'Big money' , when all market participants place orders with many different goals and interest ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

I have read your opinions here in the thread and I don't disagree with you...perhaps our disagreements would be mostly semantic. I do have a question (possibly even rhetorical) how would you ascertain value in forex?

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

There has been some very convincing papers regarding the inefficiencies of markets in times of financial crisis, and bubbles. How much can that carry in day to day or intraday events I wonder... Lately to my view the market has been seemingly ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

correct me if I mis represent your views, you are saying there is an underlying secret formula that once I figure it out and compute the right settings...I will predict price. because I will find the equilibrium, by that I take it is the mean of a ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

Those are some big assumptions you're making about me. let's say I am picking a bollinger band strategy, make it simple right...... I could pick whatever I want...but am I justified in making the assumptions that such strategy actually yields ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

are you using R cran for your stats? mat lab?

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

I replied too quickly I see you are using 1000 data points about 4 years of data with a moving acf of 10 .... I will try to replicate your results... WAIT that is 10,000 data point 37 years unless you are using minute, hourly ?

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

wow great post!!! you know when I took the hurst exponent of data going back to inception H>60 at the time although some other estimates were putting it at 80 and some at mid 50's i though perhaps it shows non randomness through persistence in the ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

Thanks for the Link, since you and I have similar views on this subject this is more akin what I tend to use nowadays I look at the big fundamental picture starting with the macroeconomic environment, then I look at both Central banks and their ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

please explain ... I am not sure what you mean? I posted a random chart with some simple S/R analysis... to illustrate you can do those on random charts. I can do a simple fibonacci retracements and projection analysis I can do some BB strategy..... ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

here is a simple analysis of a random chart.......you could clearly see support and resistance levels as well as price rejections around those levels. It is completely random, that means that the next candle has nothing to do with the previous ones ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

Here are some charts...do you think you can trade them? do you see the patterns? image image image image image image image image

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

Similarly however with a random data we also see results that are not unlike the market data image if you were betting on the open price to close positive +1 100*cumulative sum of 4227 random points > 100*(cumsum(randombinary)) [1] 100 200 300 400 ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

you could take a coin toss approach to the markets there is the open price as your reference ----above---- is a green candle, ----below---- is a red candle [1] 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

True the execution of transactions is not random at all there is a paper by the ECB file that specifically set out to determine how central banks communicate with inter dealer and open market operations to manipulate price, and how effective ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge