Re: randomness — The market is not random, it behaves AS IF it were random because we can't know all the information and the driving forces at once- a better term is CHAOTIC. Mandelbrot makes this distinction in "Misbehavior of Markets." ...

Forex Mentors - The Best Investment You Can Make?

Hi Leon, I'm glad you like some of my posts. I haven't sold anything yet. That may change since I've had a lot of requests to condense my strategy into a product or a book, and I've been trying to when I have time, but right now I'm trying to ...

Positive Expectancy

positive expectancy — Hi guys, I notice that people write about positive expectancy all the time and once they understand the formula they think that it's just about running your profits and cutting your losses. That's very misleading because ...

Positive Expectancy

the danger of patterns — I'd like to warn the newbies here who are putting too big of an emphasis on patterns with a quote from the Zurich Axioms regarding patterns: "Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly." No offense: like ...

In love with patterns

Thanks for your replies. As far as S/R, I blend a little bit in when I can. I don't treat all S/R equally, because everything must be considered in the "now" context. For example, a previous high that was broken 5 months ago may not necessarily be a ...

Position Trading

Hi guys, thought this Sunday post from my blog might be relevant. Also, Paul Stafford made a comment with more supporting details to my and Pham's argument. (Btw, thanks for the FYI post, Pham) Kris USD/CAD imbalance in the making? image Courtesy ...

USDCAD trend reversal?

Re: how do you trade? — Hi Zee, Thanks for taking my advice constructively. My method is not for everyone but it works for me and people who I've shared it with and like the style. I trade based on fundamentals and behavioral analysis (and ...

Trading using only price action

Re: position trading time frame — Hi Chicky, Thanks for the reply. Interesting strategy. I suppose the phrase "position trading" is up to interpretation but for me it means anything on a larger time frame than intraday- in other words, not ...

Position Trading

Re: trading using only price action — Zee, As far as one can tell, your method has no reason for having an edge. It seems like you are basing it either on what happened in the recent past, or what you think the market should behave like. If ...

Trading using only price action

Re: best fx broker for position trading? — Hi DKMB, just a suggestion: brokers usually make up for what they charge in rollovers with the spread and vice versa. For example, Oanda is famous for their super low spreads but rollovers are a bit ...

best fx broker for position trading?

Re: position trading — You never answered your question, goldenalex!

Day Trading vs. Swing Trading vs. Position Trading

Re: USDCAD reversal — Hi Pham, I hope so- I'm actually positioned to the long side, and I meant USD/CAD positioned to the upside, not CAD. When I say "ranging" I'm talking about large multi-month ranges, not little 100 pip ranges. I trade on ...

USDCAD trend reversal?

Re: Market up = dollar up soon? Changing USD Impact? — Hi tpr and others, Correlation breakdown is usually an indication of a new trend developing. Sentiment is starting to change as suggested in the quote you included- the Dollar is starting ...

Market up = dollar up soon? Changing USD Impact?

Re: USD/CAD ranging or reversal? — Scotiabank thinks USD/CAD will continue to go down based on commodity price appreciation. On the other hand, the people over at UBS think that USDCAD downtrend is overdone and due for a correction since BOC ...

USDCAD trend reversal?

Price vs volatility — Hi Fx Discipulo, Thanks for your kind words. Actually what I meant is the following: My view on price is based on weighing outcomes- what are the positive and negative factors for the currency pair right now, how much is ...

Strategies/Methods that work in lower volume, less trending markets

Falling Euro? — Wow, I don't know many people who look that far back- that was some nice insight. Despite all of the problems in the US, the Euro has some real fundamental problems of its own. The whole EMU concept is just an experiment ...

Platypus journal

Hi FX Discipulo, I trade with most fundamental/macro style trading but it seems like you do technicals. Anyway, I usually have a view on volatility (bullish or bearish) in addition to my view on price (bullish or bearish). To assess volatility I ...

Strategies/Methods that work in lower volume, less trending markets

Bias and Time Frame — Hanover, I couldn't have said it better. That's what I meant. However, I didn't mean to say the setup is the most important part, but rather getting the bias and the time frame right. Selecting the right entry, like you ...

Important – Why systems are profitable (or not)

Re: bearish on USDCAD — Yes, or price could be beginning to range. This often happens after a large volatility period. I'm not claiming to be right- just offering an alternate viewpoint! Kris Matthews

USDCAD trend reversal?