It seems like you want to fit the market into your very strictly quantitative and logical mindset, without ever considering if that is even possible. The markets are not driven by rationality, and maybe discretionary approaches are the more ...

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Yes, exactly, it is your job as a trader to develop all of that to the degree desired, rather than to expect somebody else to do it for you. After all, you know your needs and wants better than anyone else.

Trading for a living

Good idea. Here a nice one from this morning. From Camarilla S2 to R2.

Trading for a living

As to FVGs, here an instructive example from Monday, where a FVG from Friday forms the buying area for Monday. 5m chart. There's no algo replacing the understanding of order flow, unfortunately.

Trading for a living

And if you weren't by the screens at 7am, here's one in NQ. Not that I am trading NQ today, but just to give evidence to what I said - they happen every day. Today in both gold and NQ.

Trading for a living

Well, let's start with today. Here's my approach: 1. Look at yesterday's auction to see where things might be heading. Yesterday ended with strong buying up to the balance area around $42. 2. This morning, price is back down at yesterday's buying ...

Trading for a living

Yes, they happen all the time. And your example was even a FVG, then up to the early morning highs, then inverse FVG down. Happens every day and as simple as can be, and in this case all you need is an idea of FVGs and S/R. But as you say, our ...

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It's good to see you learning things And while you are perhaps juggling too many things when it comes to learning, you are remarkably one-eyed with you trading ambitions, it seems. Portfolios of algos beat single algos any day for someone ...

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I believe the issue is that Perplexity uses synthetic 1m data rather than historical tick-by-tick data.

Trading for a living

That sounds good. Yes, the small set of data reduces reliability, but with that limitation this is as good as it gets in terms of answering your questions about return and drawdown in an evidence-based way.

Trading for a living

Good stuff. And what is the distribution of the maximum drawdown over the 252 trading days of a year?

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Yes, but based on available historical data, Monte Carlo simulation is more robust for forward-looking risk assessment because it explicitly models uncertainty and can incorporate tail risks that the Sharpe ratio ignores. The Sharpe ratio remains ...

Trading for a living

Underlying which there is a deep truth, observed already by the Romans. “Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur” or “The world wants to be deceived, so let it be deceived.” Even St. Augustine, whose thoughts have had significant impact on European ...

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So be it, but that expectation has implications and looking at three months of trading data then poses a statistical question: How likely is this trading system to deliver on your expectation? You would like to know the answer to that question, I ...

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Do you really mean that? You have expressed certain expectations on revenue (your monthly needs etc) and drawdown (a number). Don't you think you need some metric (other than after the fact joy or grief) for knowng that you are on the right track, ...

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Oh, but ChatGPT assumes that you are providing the tick data... You can upload that to Perplexity too, and ask Perplexity Labs to create an interactive backtesting app for you, for example.

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It seems like you are a beginner/learner when it comes to research and the use of AI for it. I thought that I'd give you some more substance on that, so I asked Perplexity to produce a Strategic Framework for Using Perplexity in Futures Day Trading ...

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No, Perplexity Research is sufficient for this type of study. Labs is agentic and for bigger projects where the creation of interactive apps and tools, and/or multi-file output are required. Research can also also produce multiple files, but usually ...

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Oh, absolutely, as said before the backtests and reports are pointers and indications, rather than something to be taken literally. Good pointers, however.

Trading for a living

Excellent work! Perplexity and I respond with another suggested performance improvement: What if trades are still entered at random times, but now in the direction of the slope of an Exponential Moving Average? Answer in the attached report.

Trading for a living