ADP - A Decisive Miss That Vindicates "Weakening" Thesis ADP report was a significant downside surprise, showing a loss of -32,000 jobs against a consensus expectation of a +52,000 gain. Critically, the prior month's print was also revised down from ...

ADP: US National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Shed 32,000 Jobs in September;...

ADP - A Decisive Miss That Vindicates "Weakening" Thesis ADP report was a significant downside surprise, showing a loss of -32,000 jobs against a consensus expectation of a +52,000 gain. Critically, the prior month's print was also revised down from ...

ADP Employment Change expected to show 50K new jobs in September

This was my thinking too, pending sales may be being driven by private equity rather than ordinary consumers, as the NAR Pending Home Sales Report doesn't distinguish between types of buyers. The Existing-Home Sales Report (which tracks closed ...

NAR US Pending Home Sales Report Shows 4.0% Increase in August

It's been an odd couple of weeks print-wise, I'll grant you that.

NAR US Pending Home Sales Report Shows 4.0% Increase in August

A softer landing rather than stagflation? A significant upside surprise that powerfully refutes the idea of a widespread slowdown. The 4.0% m/m increase in contracts signed is a massive beat against a consensus forecast of a -0.4% decline and the ...

NAR US Pending Home Sales Report Shows 4.0% Increase in August

Yawn.

Waller: The Next Frontier of Payments Innovation

Weekly Macro Playbook | W40_250929 Week 39 was a story consumer resurgence, as a wave of strong economic data forced the market to abandon its conviction in a US slowdown. The week began with the prevailing narrative of "moderate stagflation" ...

US dollar bears to be stress-tested again this week

Weekly Macro Playbook | W40_250929 Week 39 was a story consumer resurgence, as a wave of strong economic data forced the market to abandon its conviction in a US slowdown. The week began with the prevailing narrative of "moderate stagflation" ...

A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: Trading Through an Impending US Government Shutdown

For sure, I think it's positive development either way. Just that the data is definitely overstated. I'll be using Oct 24th (August revisions) as a potential catalyst to frame other indicators.

US Monthly New Residential Sales, August 2025

Daly | Steady Through Change: In Policy, Business, and Life • Centrist positioning, cements her as a neutral governor factionally going forwards; cautious, data dependant, Powell-esque. • Main theme of speech was "steadiness"; explicitly rejected ...

Daly: Steady Through Change: In Policy, Business, and Life

Mark my words, this figure will be revised down.

US Monthly New Residential Sales, August 2025

This is more noise than anything else, the surge reflects slightly lower mortgage rates and an increase in builders offering buyer incentives. Take it with a huge grain of salt. The +/– 21.8% confidence interval on the monthly change is massive. New ...

US Monthly New Residential Sales, August 2025

Noted, haha.

Powell: Economic Outlook

Speech contains little new analysis, its key message is a reinforcement of status quo. He's basically signalling that he will not be rushed into a deep easing cycle by a few months of weak data or dovish dissenters.

Powell: Economic Outlook

"Too big to fail".

What Happens to the USD if the Government Shuts Down?

US Flash PMI Readout

US: Business growth slows in September, but selling price inflation also cools

This is more about market sentiment than anything else, while you're right it's nothing new in terms of economic theory, it does position Miran as a Governor who going forwards will root his views in intellectual terms, rather than in partisan ones ...

Fed’s Miran Says Rates Should be 2 Points Lower, Explains Dissent

September Flash PMI Forecast

US PMI Data – What to Expect – 23.9.25

You can find his full acount here; he built his entire case methodically using academic research, CBO data, and clear theoretical frameworks (Taylor Rule + r*). It was a really illuminating speech. url

Fed’s Miran Says Rates Should be 2 Points Lower, Explains Dissent

Speech by Governor Stephen I. Miran - Nonmonetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy • Laid out data-driven argument for why the Fed is too restrictive; based on what he calls "underappreciated nonmonetary factors". • Believes r* is near-zero, ...

Fed’s Miran Says Rates Should be 2 Points Lower, Explains Dissent