Let us say, the USDJPY has had a daily range of 89 pips. And all it does is run around this range. If it hit one side of the range, I would enter and put in an exit at +55 pips. Because optimally, I know that if 89pip movement is the range, then ...

The Semi-definitive guide to Pascal's Triangles in Forex

Absolutely not stupid. Given price; given nothing known about it. 50% chance of uptick, as 50% chance of downtick. OK, now we get into so quantum theory; quantum spin, and quantum cryptography. Quantum Theory and Newtonian theory says; an object at ...

The Semi-definitive guide to Pascal's Triangles in Forex

Assuming P => P+15 (50%) P+15 => P+50 (50%) If this is the case, you trading the "crest" or near crest of the distribution interval curve, in which case, Pascal's triangle is STILL the optimal. Given P, P+15, P+50, P+65, Assuming your probability is ...

The Semi-definitive guide to Pascal's Triangles in Forex

Not true either. Well, let me take that back; it is a system to optimize quickly, or nearly optimize quickly a pyramiding interval system, be it interval of SL, of lot size, or of next entry size, or all of it. It does NOT provide any optimizations ...

The Semi-definitive guide to Pascal's Triangles in Forex

The reverse violates mathematics; as does Averaging down. I've covered this in my insanely extensive journal.

The Semi-definitive guide to Pascal's Triangles in Forex

You are wrong. If I place a position in, and then place another one @ +21, but place another one @ +13, I assume that: P => P+21 = work unit 1 P+21 => P+21+13 = work unit 2 with probability of work unit 1 = work unit 2. It matters. It is saying that ...

The Semi-definitive guide to Pascal's Triangles in Forex

url As promised, a semi-comprehensive look at the use of Pascal's Triangle as it applies to Forex. @GG, I hope this helps!

Fractals, ZZ & the Pissing Dog

So the concepts I struggle with are these; there are the "known unknowns", and the "unknown unknowns" a la black swans. But there's a different category that I'm addressing altogether that I think might be referred to as "Gladwell Swans". Interest ...

Fractals, ZZ & the Pissing Dog

I'll give you straight up, the problem I haven't been able to solve and I'm not sure there's a solution .. Federer.. an easy solution I mean. Let's say you wanted to avoid traffic accidents with your car, and so you install a spiffy new AI . It sees ...

Fractals, ZZ & the Pissing Dog

I think CVK (Continuously Variable Kelly) probably is necessary if you are trading $10M and up, but I think if your account is like $10K, I don't find it to be necessary and probably way too much waste of resource. The problem is that scaling goes ...

Twoblink's 2013 Journal

?? Aren't I posting now? You mean aside from having 2 kids and running 14 businesses?

Twoblink's 2013 Journal

Now we are getting into a good discussion.. But I think it is insane to discuss Kelly without discussing its kissing cousin, RoR. I think without accounting for RoR, Kelly is scary, not just scary but down-right dangerous. Kelly requires you state ...

Twoblink's 2013 Journal

I am not sure I would be able to put my trading results and my graphs up here without violating my confidentiality agreements.. Sorry!

Twoblink's 2013 Journal

Long Term optimal bet size of Kelly works if you know what your Expectancy is and if your expectancy is not fluctuating. I am very familiar with Kelly, and he has 50 years on me in terms of age; and I build off of his work, but I am not talking ...

Twoblink's 2013 Journal

I'm sure it's possible to Luke to a trade explorer, but I'm not seeing the benefit of it for me..?

Twoblink's 2013 Journal

Sabermetrics: Long before Brad Pitt was Billy Beane, I had started applying the equivalent of Sabermetrics (Forexmetrics) to Forex. I apply mostly non-obvious stats to the underlining price structure like Bill James does. I have yielded good results ...

Twoblink's 2013 Journal

url Given a Golomb style ruler; if the lot sizes were "golomb-ized" then you basically have the most options for creating the most options with the least amount of lot sizes. So it's my continued theory then that all lot size manipulation should ...

Twoblink's 2013 Journal

Truth be told, the entire thing yielded I think the greatest non-spoken-about item as far as I'm concerned; and that is the "Ephemeral Position". I think of all my work; this is probably the most progressive; the concept that A position + B position ...

Optimized Risk vs Reward Equation