there are people on either side, there are bulls, there are bears. Look at polls for EURUSD, nearly everyone is bearish. Does that mean If I am short I am copying someones idea? I don't think so, if so everyone short would be copying GS/JPM/MS or ...

EURUSD

I admit, I was on the bearish side in early Jan... But as you point out, I traded volatility as opposed to the EURUSD. I haven't had a naked EURUSD position for months. Yes, my thoughts have somewhat switched. But no overnight, it has been changing ...

EURUSD

On 1st bold - nope, I just think it will be less bearish than everyone else thinks (this goes against all the macro thoughts that banks put out, this is a very anti-consensus thought, infact, my views (as per my blog) are very different from many ...

EURUSD

what? please be more informed next time you try to insult someone. (plus what is the point?) jealousy is cruel, try and see past it.

EURUSD

I am 18... that doesn't change anything. It doesn't change the banks I've worked with, it doesn't change the knowledge I've acquired, and nor should it.

EURUSD

explain where I am wrong then? instead of insulting me, try and help me see where I am wrong. please. I trust you are one of these big boys then? that is why you hang out on a forum. I never claim to be a "big boy", yet my learning comes from what ...

EURUSD

yes, there is a period of volatility you are missing as shown below with the UST 6 month swap spread this should help with a basic understanding - url also this - url

EURUSD

no assumptions anywhere, purely an observation of facts I have bared witness too. re: bold - A monkey can trade technicals, hell even a computer can... but they cannot trade fundamentals. In the city, one is not valued on their ability to follow ...

EURUSD

re: bold text - I'm just going to pretend you didn't say this, so we can continue a quite interesting discussion (silly comment btw, probably accidental) the graph being inverted has nothing to do with it. I could flip it upside down if it benefits ...

EURUSD

same picture as before, but normally one uses X-CCY BS' It would be better to consider the asset-swap spread / z-spread on the 6 month bubil

EURUSD

what credit risk? there is none left it would seem just load up X-CCY basis swaps. never been tighter....

EURUSD

I meant the rate path curve, that is where the most impactful FX reaction will occur. A rate cut, certainly pushes out the rate path. The 6 month EURIBOR is 42.6bps, I doubt that gets under 5bps, remember that is interbank lending not prime rates ...

EURUSD

for sure it will hit the forward starting curves... like the EONIA 1y1y etc, but I wouldn't consider that too important for the FX rate right now... there is a time and place for each interest rate

EURUSD

on the margin, a negative rate cut is far less effective at reducing the FX rate than say an ordinary 50bps cut or whatever. plus, given the FX forward curve, one already gets paid to hedge

EURUSD

The principal argument in QE/CE is to lower real yields. (nominal - inflation) So, this comes about in two ways, Higher inflation and lower yields. Given low yields already, a negative rate cut is barely anything on the margin, and therefore it can ...

EURUSD

This!

EURUSD

is it a coincidence that people with large accounts trade using fundamentals? Do they trade fundamentals because of the large account size? or, Do they have a large account because they trade fundamentals?

EURUSD

urghh... please try again... this doesn't explain at all, why you think an easing program from the ECB (techincally will be a credit easing, not quantitative easing) will lead to a weaker EUR? My problem here is not personal against your claims, it ...

EURUSD

true - Low U/E in EZ is considered ~7%, which is considered uncomfortably high for the US/UK

EURUSD

yeah definitely true but you can adjust the strategies as one pleases, just go on a currency pair and <BTST> GO to look at basic tech strategies click on EDIT and you can make your own, and optimize with <BT> GO or for FX only, go <FXSW> GO to test ...

USD/TRY