With fixed TP and SL and assuming random walk, the winning probability is easy to calculate by using pascal triangle. The real challenge is trailing stop if it is taking into consideration. Here is my excel sheet. Have a look! Btw if anyone have an ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

So is that means you have an obvious reason to say that fixed SL/TP capture less or trailing SL/TP capture more?

Trailing Stop Expectancy - A Mathematical Problem

Assuming price movement does follow Brownian Motion then I strongly believe that this problem can be answered by pascal triangle because you can easily find out how many and possible steps needed to reach your retracement point. However price ...

Trailing Stop Expectancy - A Mathematical Problem

I agree. I have a similar experience too.

Trailing Stop Expectancy - A Mathematical Problem

I have done some calculation (one touch option only) before and the result showed that it has higher house edge than spot fx. Although there are certain moment that the expectancy value has turn positive but the broker has reduced the payout ratio ...

Binary Options - How not to get stopped out

The star stock analyst Elaine Garzarelli, who had predicted the Black Monday one week ahead of the crash has a poor performance in the years following the crash. This is the best example for survivorship bias. The stock analysts has no difference ...

The fallacy of Metatrader EA trading contests

I agree. IMHO fixed fractional is the best if you understand the math behind it.

position sizing on system with high W%

Variance = StDev^2, therefore it is always positive.

Standard Deviation Query

Is 2.4 pips after spread? If it is before spread then the edge may be reduced significantly or not exist anymore.

Systematic trading

IMHO I think that you may need fractal and chaos theory as well as statistical skills in order to model the market. Fractal is interesting. I once watched a professor used a fractal approach to model a crown behaviour at a stadium entrance/exit on ...

Psychology, Mathematics and Numerology

looking distinctly is not a scientific method to support your hypothesis. Yes it looks like gaussian, but it is not, not even close.

Can you tell with naked eyes?

no I think you are making a mistake, market price changes does not follow normal distribution. Show us a Q-Q plot if you found any price changes that is normally distributed. btw I cant read your excel sheet.

Can you tell with naked eyes?

modelling 90% based on his/her old posts, it looks like he/she is a fan of martingale.

Which EA is making money for you?

ok i managed to find the answer here. Alpari time is GMT+2 during summer and GMT+1 during winter. This solved my confusion.

Forexite GMT shift

My attachments showed both comparison for UK summer time & winter time. UK Winter Time The top left picture is dated on 2010.03.03 and the marking time is 00:40 for Alpari, while the bottom left picture is dated on 2010.03.03 and the marking time is ...

Forexite GMT shift

What a coincidence! I will run my strategies in auto mode next monday too! Best of luck to both of us!

Systematic trading

Bleed or Blowup? Why Do We Prefer Asymmetric Payoffs? — Here is another journal from Taleb pertaining to the skewness.

Systematic trading

Here is the example of the profit distribution for my portfolio. It is heavily skew to the right therefore it has a thin left tail but fat right tail. So I could lose often but the magnitude is under control. However when I win I could win very big, ...

Systematic trading